Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0-5 at 94.0% in Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October? — $36.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $616.
Leading outcome
0-5
94%
A 94.0% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D +2.5 pts
0-594.0%
5-104.0%
Bid
93¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 01, 2026: 56.5% – 93.5% · Opened at 56.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
Category
Oil, Iran, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$36.3K
Volume (24h)
$616
Liquidity
$149.2K
Markets
7
Leading outcome
0-5 — 94.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 0-5, is priced at 94.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, 0-5 has traded between 56.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 90.5%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202683.0%
Oct 13, 202684.0%
Oct 15, 202690.5%
Oct 16, 202691.5%
Oct 18, 202693.5%
Oct 19, 202692.5%
Oct 20, 202690.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

0-5 is favored at 94.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
0-594¢94.0%-0.5 pts$14.0K38.4%
5-104¢4.0%+0.4 pts$9.8K27.1%
10-152¢1.6%—$2.4K6.7%
15-201¢0.8%—$2.6K7.1%
20-251¢0.7%+0.2 pts$2.9K7.9%
30+0¢0.4%—$2.4K6.7%
25-300¢0.4%—$2.2K6.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$36.3K has been traded on this event in total, $616 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,740 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Knotty-LeverageYes3,740$3.5K
0xa5ef39c3…No2,274$136
Mellow-ForkYes1,330$1.3K
Enchanting-TextureNo1,122$67
Belated-GlueNo524$31
Ordinary-DressNo442$27
Skeletal-LiverNo199$12
Sticky-Tabernacle-NurseryNo192$12
Known-UseYes169$159
Direct-ChainstayNo146$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $134 at 99.7%BUY No — $55 at 99.7%BUY No — $50 at 99.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:51 PM ETYesBUY3.0%$0
Oct 24, 11:05 AM ETYesBUY0.8%$0
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY7.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY7.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY7.0%$1
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY6.3%$2
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETYesBUY4.2%$7
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$30
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$17
Oct 24, 08:02 AM ETNoBUY99.8%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0-5 at 94.0%. Next is 5-10 at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-october?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October??

$36.3K in total volume, with $616 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.

When does Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?, according to Polymarket traders?

0-5, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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