As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 0-5 at 94.0% in Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October? — $36.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 0-5, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 0-5 has traded between 56.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 56.5% and last traded at 90.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.5% |
0-5 is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | 94¢ | 94.0% | -0.5 pts | $14.0K | 38.4% |
| 5-10 | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.4 pts | $9.8K | 27.1% |
| 10-15 | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $2.4K | 6.7% |
| 15-20 | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $2.6K | 7.1% |
| 20-25 | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.2 pts | $2.9K | 7.9% |
| 30+ | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.4K | 6.7% |
| 25-30 | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.2K | 6.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.3K has been traded on this event in total, $616 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,740 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knotty-Leverage | Yes | 3,740 | $3.5K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,274 | $136 |
| Mellow-Fork | Yes | 1,330 | $1.3K |
| Enchanting-Texture | No | 1,122 | $67 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 524 | $31 |
| Ordinary-Dress | No | 442 | $27 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 199 | $12 |
| Sticky-Tabernacle-Nursery | No | 192 | $12 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 169 | $159 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 146 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 6.3% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.2% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 08:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 0-5 at 94.0%. Next is 5-10 at 4.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/avgpt-of-ships-transiting-strait-of-hormuz-end-of-october?via=bro
$36.3K in total volume, with $616 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
0-5, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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