As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lamine Yamal at 71.0% in Ballon d'Or 2026: 3rd Place — $193.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lamine Yamal, is priced at 71.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts.
Since October 19, 2026, Lamine Yamal has traded between 64.5% and 73.0%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 71.0%.
Lamine Yamal is favored at 71.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 71¢ | 71.0% | -2.0 pts | $99.7K | 51.5% |
| Player A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 11¢ | 11.0% | -6.0 pts | $23.9K | 12.3% |
| Harry Kane | 7¢ | 7.4% | +5.0 pts | $9.2K | 4.8% |
| Lionel Messi | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.7 pts | $9.1K | 4.7% |
| Rodri | 3¢ | 2.5% | -1.1 pts | $7.3K | 3.8% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 2¢ | 2.3% | +1.7 pts | $9.1K | 4.7% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.9 pts | $7.9K | 4.1% |
| Michael Olise | 1¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $7.8K | 4.0% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $5.5K | 2.9% |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Erling Haaland | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.1K | 2.1% |
| Jude Bellingham | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | 0.9% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | 1.0% |
| Declan Rice | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | 0.9% |
| Vitinha | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $2.1K | 1.1% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Luis Diaz | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.7K | 0.9% |
| Marc Cucurella | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $60 | 0.0% |
| Sadio Mané | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Marquinhos | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Nuno Mendes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| João Neves | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Willian Pacho | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Julián Quiñones | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| William Saliba | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
| Ferran Torres | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $60 | 0.0% |
| Dayot Upamecano | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 70¢ / ask 72¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$193.7K has been traded on this event in total, $11.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 51 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 3rd place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 3rd place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 23,725 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparse-Cookie | No | 23,725 | $6.9K |
| Aggravating-Lettuce-Local | Yes | 23,272 | $16.5K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 17,503 | $5.1K |
| Gargantuan-Collaboration | Yes | 12,678 | $9.0K |
| Hospitable-Maestro | No | 9,999 | $2.9K |
| Ecstatic-Prostanoid | Yes | 9,327 | $6.6K |
| Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan | Yes | 6,160 | $4.4K |
| Cool-Copywriter | No | 4,610 | $1.3K |
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | No | 4,500 | $1.3K |
| Husky-Interject-Prostrate | Yes | 3,015 | $2.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 70.0% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 05:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 05:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $144 |
| Oct 24, 04:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $144 |
| Oct 24, 04:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 71.5% | $288 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lamine Yamal at 71.0%. Next is Player A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-d-or-2026-3rd-place-20261019143424322?via=bro
$193.7K in total volume, with $11.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 51 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Lamine Yamal, priced at 71.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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