As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Rodri at 72.5% in Ballon d'Or 2026: 4th Place — $27.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Rodri, is priced at 72.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts.
Since October 20, 2026, Rodri has traded between 62.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 72.5%.
Rodri is favored at 72.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodri | 72¢ | 72.5% | -2.0 pts | $16.2K | 59.5% |
| Player A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 13¢ | 12.6% | +9.7 pts | $1.4K | 5.3% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 6¢ | 5.5% | -3.0 pts | $2.1K | 7.5% |
| Lionel Messi | 6¢ | 5.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.8K | 6.4% |
| Michael Olise | 3¢ | 3.3% | -5.1 pts | $1.1K | 4.0% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.8 pts | $733 | 2.7% |
| Lamine Yamal | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $674 | 2.5% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.8 pts | $777 | 2.8% |
| Declan Rice | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.6 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Vitinha | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.7 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.5 pts | $59 | 0.2% |
| Dayot Upamecano | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.0 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Willian Pacho | 2¢ | 1.7% | -1.1 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Julián Quiñones | 2¢ | 1.7% | -1.5 pts | $59 | 0.2% |
| Marquinhos | 2¢ | 1.5% | -1.2 pts | $79 | 0.3% |
| Ferran Torres | 2¢ | 1.5% | -1.2 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Jude Bellingham | 1¢ | 1.2% | -1.5 pts | $59 | 0.2% |
| Harry Kane | 1¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $459 | 1.7% |
| Erling Haaland | 0¢ | 0.4% | -2.4 pts | $670 | 2.5% |
| Pau Cubarsi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.5 pts | $98 | 0.4% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Luis Diaz | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Marc Cucurella | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Sadio Mané | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| Nuno Mendes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| João Neves | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $85 | 0.3% |
| William Saliba | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $90 | 0.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.2K has been traded on this event in total, $9.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 51 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 4th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 4th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,834 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | No | 5,834 | $1.6K |
| Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan | Yes | 3,943 | $2.9K |
| Aggravating-Lettuce-Local | Yes | 2,039 | $1.5K |
| Cool-Copywriter | No | 1,838 | $505 |
| Hollow-Filing | Yes | 1,831 | $1.3K |
| Slow-Regret | Yes | 1,366 | $990 |
| Worried-Livestock | Yes | 848 | $615 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 724 | $199 |
| Digital-Basket | Yes | 522 | $378 |
| Superb-Moody | No | 410 | $113 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 04:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 04:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 01:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 01:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $48 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Rodri at 72.5%. Next is Player A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-d-or-2026-4th-place-20261019193417541?via=bro
$27.2K in total volume, with $9.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 51 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Rodri, priced at 72.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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