As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lionel Messi at 65.5% in Ballon d'Or 2026: 5th Place — $31.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lionel Messi, is priced at 65.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts.
Since October 20, 2026, Lionel Messi has traded between 50.5% and 72.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 65.5%.
Lionel Messi is favored at 65.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | 66¢ | 65.5% | -6.0 pts | $18.6K | 59.8% |
| Player A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Player T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 18¢ | 18.0% | +12.5 pts | $4.9K | 15.6% |
| Rodri | 9¢ | 8.9% | -1.9 pts | $952 | 3.1% |
| Michael Olise | 6¢ | 5.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.6K | 5.2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.7 pts | $1.4K | 4.4% |
| Lamine Yamal | 3¢ | 3.4% | -1.1 pts | $607 | 2.0% |
| Pau Cubarsi | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.4 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Jude Bellingham | 3¢ | 3.0% | -1.2 pts | $70 | 0.2% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| João Neves | 3¢ | 3.0% | -1.2 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Willian Pacho | 3¢ | 3.0% | -1.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Dayot Upamecano | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.2 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Vitinha | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.5 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.6 pts | $101 | 0.3% |
| Julián Quiñones | 3¢ | 3.0% | +0.1 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Ferran Torres | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.6 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| William Saliba | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $50 | 0.2% |
| Erling Haaland | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $667 | 2.1% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 3¢ | 2.7% | -3.2 pts | $709 | 2.3% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 3¢ | 2.5% | -1.9 pts | $457 | 1.5% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 2¢ | 2.5% | -1.2 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Luis Diaz | 2¢ | 2.5% | -1.8 pts | $70 | 0.2% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 2¢ | 2.5% | -1.6 pts | $70 | 0.2% |
| Nuno Mendes | 2¢ | 2.5% | -1.9 pts | $71 | 0.2% |
| Declan Rice | 2¢ | 2.3% | -0.5 pts | $70 | 0.2% |
| Sadio Mané | 2¢ | 2.3% | -2.1 pts | $70 | 0.2% |
| Harry Kane | 2¢ | 2.0% | -0.1 pts | $246 | 0.8% |
| Marc Cucurella | 2¢ | 1.9% | -1.3 pts | $50 | 0.2% |
| Lautaro Martinez | 2¢ | 1.7% | -1.7 pts | $70 | 0.2% |
| Marquinhos | 1¢ | 1.4% | -2.9 pts | $80 | 0.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 64¢ / ask 67¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$31.0K has been traded on this event in total, $11.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 51 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the player who finishes in 5th place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If two or more players are tied for 5th place in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's (the award organizer, in partnership with UEFA) official ranking. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If no 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking is published by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,100 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | No | 5,100 | $1.8K |
| Aggravating-Lettuce-Local | Yes | 3,608 | $2.4K |
| Reflecting-Personal-Pattypan | Yes | 3,194 | $2.1K |
| Cool-Copywriter | No | 2,891 | $997 |
| Worried-Livestock | Yes | 1,904 | $1.2K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 841 | $290 |
| Slow-Regret | Yes | 737 | $483 |
| Peaceful-Grassland | Yes | 500 | $328 |
| Careful-Bunch | No | 446 | $154 |
| Empty-Monitoring | Yes | 423 | $277 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 03:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 34.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 01:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 33.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $216 |
| Oct 24, 01:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 01:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.4% | $31 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lionel Messi at 65.5%. Next is Player A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-d-or-2026-5th-place-20261019193417541?via=bro
$31.0K in total volume, with $11.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 51 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Lionel Messi, priced at 65.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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