As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Haaland at 81.5% in Ballon d'Or 2026: Erling Haaland or Jude Bellingham to finish higher? — $2.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Haaland, is priced at 81.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +2.0 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, Haaland has traded between 50.0% and 81.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 81.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 81.5% |
Haaland is favored at 81.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 82¢ | 81.5% | — | $2.7K | 100.0% |
| Bellingham | 18¢ | 18.5% | — | $2.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Haaland" if Erling Haaland finishes higher than Jude Bellingham in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Bellingham" if Jude Bellingham finishes higher than Erling Haaland. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,100 shares of Bellingham.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | Bellingham | 1,100 | $203 |
| Slow-Regret | Haaland | 380 | $309 |
| Hollow-Filing | Haaland | 307 | $251 |
| Weird-Freedom | Haaland | 250 | $204 |
| High-Observatory | Bellingham | 250 | $46 |
| Angelic-Paint | Haaland | 195 | $159 |
| Frightening-Trailpatrol | Haaland | 143 | $116 |
| Digital-Basket | Haaland | 140 | $114 |
| Wordy-Cleat | Haaland | 103 | $84 |
| Ajar-Sportsman | Bellingham | 95 | $18 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:24 AM ET | Haaland | BUY | 83.0% | $116 |
| Oct 22, 03:38 PM ET | Haaland | BUY | 82.1% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | Bellingham | SELL | 19.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 09:42 PM ET | Bellingham | SELL | 19.0% | $19 |
| Oct 20, 01:01 PM ET | Haaland | BUY | 81.0% | $84 |
| Oct 19, 07:30 AM ET | Bellingham | SELL | 19.0% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 05:34 PM ET | Haaland | BUY | 81.0% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 05:33 PM ET | Haaland | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 18, 05:33 PM ET | Haaland | BUY | 80.0% | $304 |
| Oct 17, 06:35 PM ET | Haaland | BUY | 79.0% | $154 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Haaland at 81.5%. Next is Bellingham at 18.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-erling-haaland-or-jude-bellingham-to-finish-higher?via=bro
$2.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Haaland, priced at 81.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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