As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kane at 84.5% in Ballon d'Or 2026: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal to finish higher? — $9.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Kane, is priced at 84.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +16.0 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, Kane has traded between 41.5% and 74.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 66.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 66.5% |
Kane is favored at 84.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kane | 84¢ | 84.5% | +3.0 pts | $9.8K | 100.0% |
| Yamal | 16¢ | 15.5% | -3.0 pts | $9.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $639 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Kane" if Harry Kane finishes higher than Lamine Yamal in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Yamal" if Lamine Yamal finishes higher than Harry Kane. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,050 shares of Yamal.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosy-Cannibal-Compassion | Yamal | 1,050 | $163 |
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | Yamal | 903 | $140 |
| Angelic-Paint | Kane | 822 | $694 |
| Anchored-Businessman | Kane | 516 | $436 |
| Clueless-Ray-Doubt | Kane | 504 | $426 |
| Neglected-Men | Yamal | 397 | $62 |
| Third-Pillbox | Yamal | 374 | $58 |
| Unlined-Pole | Kane | 358 | $303 |
| Brown-Tragedy | Kane | 333 | $282 |
| Brave-Mule | Kane | 300 | $254 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:45 PM ET | Yamal | BUY | 16.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 08:21 AM ET | Yamal | SELL | 12.8% | $74 |
| Oct 23, 03:15 PM ET | Yamal | BUY | 21.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 09:11 AM ET | Yamal | BUY | 21.0% | $40 |
| Oct 23, 07:49 AM ET | Yamal | SELL | 16.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:04 AM ET | Kane | SELL | 79.0% | $38 |
| Oct 21, 05:36 PM ET | Yamal | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 02:27 PM ET | Yamal | BUY | 18.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 01:00 PM ET | Yamal | BUY | 18.0% | $71 |
| Oct 21, 09:41 AM ET | Yamal | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kane at 84.5%. Next is Yamal at 15.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-harry-kane-or-lamine-yamal-to-finish-higher?via=bro
$9.8K in total volume, with $639 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kane, priced at 84.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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