As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mbappé at 88.5% in Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lionel Messi to finish higher? — $1.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mbappé, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts.
Since October 20, 2026, Mbappé has traded between 49.5% and 88.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 88.5%.
Mbappé is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mbappé | 88¢ | 88.5% | +1.0 pts | $1.2K | 100.0% |
| Messi | 12¢ | 11.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 84¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.2K has been traded on this event in total, $633 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Mbappé" if Kylian Mbappé finishes higher than Lionel Messi in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Messi" if Lionel Messi finishes higher than Kylian Mbappé. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 532 shares of Mbappé.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Remorseful-Randomisation | Mbappé | 532 | $471 |
| Tame-Booster | Messi | 527 | $61 |
| Runner109 | Mbappé | 376 | $333 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Messi | 300 | $34 |
| 0x123431df… | Mbappé | 79 | $70 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Messi | 60 | $7 |
| Big-Asparagus | Messi | 50 | $6 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Messi | 30 | $3 |
| Dimpled-Convertible | Messi | 21 | $2 |
| Handy-Rocker | Mbappé | 11 | $9 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:55 PM ET | Mbappé | BUY | 95.0% | $75 |
| Oct 24, 03:55 PM ET | Mbappé | BUY | 93.9% | $500 |
| Oct 24, 06:53 AM ET | Messi | BUY | 18.7% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 02:00 PM ET | Messi | BUY | 19.0% | $100 |
| Oct 22, 03:38 PM ET | Mbappé | BUY | 95.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mbappé at 88.5%. Next is Messi at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-kylian-mbappe-or-lionel-messi-to-finish-higher?via=bro
$1.2K in total volume, with $633 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Mbappé, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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