As of October 24, 2026, 06:35 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Kvaratskhelia at 77.0% in Ballon d'Or 2026: Ousmane Dembélé or Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to finish higher? — $4.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Kvaratskhelia, is priced at 77.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.5 pts; past week: -12.0 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, Kvaratskhelia has traded between 49.0% and 77.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 77.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 77.0% |
Kvaratskhelia is favored at 77.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kvaratskhelia | 77¢ | 77.0% | +6.5 pts | $4.6K | 100.0% |
| Dembélé | 23¢ | 23.0% | -6.5 pts | $4.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 22¢ / ask 24¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.6K has been traded on this event in total, $658 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Dembélé" if Ousmane Dembélé finishes higher than Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Kvaratskhelia" if Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finishes higher than Ousmane Dembélé. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 828 shares of Kvaratskhelia.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frightening-Trailpatrol | Kvaratskhelia | 828 | $637 |
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | Dembélé | 754 | $173 |
| Violent-Figurine | Dembélé | 706 | $162 |
| Hollow-Filing | Kvaratskhelia | 533 | $411 |
| Ajar-Sportsman | Kvaratskhelia | 345 | $266 |
| Unfolded-Saffron | Kvaratskhelia | 214 | $165 |
| Known-Use | Dembélé | 170 | $39 |
| P1kaso | Dembélé | 160 | $37 |
| Runner109 | Kvaratskhelia | 130 | $100 |
| Slow-Regret | Kvaratskhelia | 90 | $70 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:03 PM ET | Kvaratskhelia | BUY | 78.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Dembélé | BUY | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | Dembélé | BUY | 24.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | Dembélé | SELL | 24.6% | $58 |
| Oct 24, 12:30 PM ET | Kvaratskhelia | BUY | 78.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 09:24 AM ET | Dembélé | BUY | 28.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:09 AM ET | Dembélé | SELL | 27.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | Kvaratskhelia | SELL | 71.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:06 AM ET | Dembélé | BUY | 29.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:44 PM ET | Kvaratskhelia | BUY | 71.0% | $152 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Kvaratskhelia at 77.0%. Next is Dembélé at 23.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-ousmane-dembele-or-khvicha-kvaratskhelia-to-finish-higher?via=bro
$4.6K in total volume, with $658 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Kvaratskhelia, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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