As of October 24, 2026, 06:32 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Rodri at 76.5% in Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher? — $32.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Rodri, is priced at 76.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +5.5 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, Rodri has traded between 18.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 74.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.5% |
Rodri is favored at 76.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodri | 76¢ | 76.5% | +2.5 pts | $32.3K | 100.0% |
| Messi | 24¢ | 23.5% | -2.5 pts | $32.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 77¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$32.3K has been traded on this event in total, $773 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Rodri" if Rodri finishes higher than Lionel Messi in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Messi" if Lionel Messi finishes higher than Rodri. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,151 shares of Rodri.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gargantuan-Government-Survivor | Rodri | 7,151 | $5.5K |
| Ajar-Sportsman | Messi | 6,231 | $1.5K |
| Thin-Disclaimer-Life | Rodri | 3,916 | $3.0K |
| Peaceful-Grassland | Messi | 3,400 | $799 |
| Fickle-Game | Messi | 2,454 | $577 |
| Understated-Patient | Messi | 1,600 | $376 |
| Angelic-Paint | Rodri | 1,507 | $1.2K |
| Enchanted-Plaintiff | Messi | 1,487 | $349 |
| Hollow-Filing | Rodri | 1,349 | $1.0K |
| Ecstatic-Prostanoid | Rodri | 1,205 | $922 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | Rodri | SELL | 75.3% | $174 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | Messi | BUY | 26.5% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 06:29 PM ET | Messi | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 03:40 PM ET | Messi | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:09 PM ET | Rodri | BUY | 77.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | Messi | SELL | 24.0% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 11:02 AM ET | Messi | BUY | 25.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 09:35 AM ET | Messi | BUY | 26.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:06 AM ET | Rodri | SELL | 74.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:02 AM ET | Rodri | BUY | 75.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Rodri at 76.5%. Next is Messi at 23.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-2026-rodri-or-lionel-messi-to-finish-higher?via=bro
$32.3K in total volume, with $773 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Rodri, priced at 76.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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