As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Harry Kane at 99.8% in Ballon d'Or Top 10 Finish 2026 — $166.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Harry Kane, is priced at 99.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, Harry Kane has traded between 97.5% and 99.8%. It opened at 97.5% and last traded at 99.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 99.6% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 99.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 99.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 99.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 99.6% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 99.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 99.8% |
Harry Kane is favored at 99.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 100¢ | 99.8% | — | $530 | 0.3% |
| Lamine Yamal | 100¢ | 99.6% | -0.1 pts | $1.8K | 1.1% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 100¢ | 99.5% | — | $203 | 0.1% |
| Lionel Messi | 99¢ | 99.3% | +0.1 pts | $2.5K | 1.5% |
| Rodri | 98¢ | 98.4% | -0.2 pts | $495 | 0.3% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 98¢ | 97.5% | +0.7 pts | $7.4K | 4.4% |
| Michael Olise | 95¢ | 94.7% | -1.5 pts | $5.2K | 3.2% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 94¢ | 94.0% | — | $7.3K | 4.4% |
| Erling Haaland | 82¢ | 81.5% | +5.5 pts | $7.7K | 4.7% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 78¢ | 77.5% | +7.5 pts | $20.6K | 12.4% |
| Jude Bellingham | 29¢ | 29.0% | +3.0 pts | $40.0K | 24.0% |
| Pau Cubarsi | 14¢ | 14.5% | -1.5 pts | $8.6K | 5.2% |
| Declan Rice | 11¢ | 11.0% | -1.5 pts | $12.7K | 7.6% |
| Vitinha | 11¢ | 10.8% | +2.5 pts | $16.3K | 9.8% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 5¢ | 5.3% | +3.0 pts | $4.9K | 2.9% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 4¢ | 3.7% | -0.1 pts | $6.0K | 3.6% |
| William Saliba | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.3 pts | $2.5K | 1.5% |
| Nuno Mendes | 2¢ | 2.3% | -0.5 pts | $8.5K | 5.1% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 2¢ | 2.2% | -0.1 pts | $1.2K | 0.7% |
| João Neves | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $2.8K | 1.7% |
| Willian Pacho | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.4 pts | $430 | 0.3% |
| Marc Cucurella | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.9 pts | $2.1K | 1.3% |
| Luis Diaz | 2¢ | 1.9% | -1.4 pts | $1.9K | 1.2% |
| Ferran Torres | 2¢ | 1.9% | -0.4 pts | $1.5K | 0.9% |
| Dayot Upamecano | 1¢ | 1.2% | — | $42 | 0.0% |
| Julián Quiñones | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $675 | 0.4% |
| Lautaro Martinez | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $1.2K | 0.7% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $889 | 0.5% |
| Sadio Mané | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $10 | 0.0% |
| Marquinhos | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $155 | 0.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 100¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$166.0K has been traded on this event in total, $10.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 30 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 10 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 10 players tie for the top 10 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 10 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final ten places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 207 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrated-Spectrum | Yes | 207 | $206 |
| Lighthearted-Relation | No | 205 | $1 |
| Soggy-Coverall-Trust | No | 198 | $0 |
| Grand-Entrepreneur-Advocate | Yes | 191 | $191 |
| Ecstatic-Retina | Yes | 120 | $120 |
| Recent-Prelude | No | 100 | $0 |
| Voluminous-Lava | No | 10 | $0 |
| Writhing-Retention | No | 5 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.8% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 06:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.8% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 06:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.7% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.5% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 06:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.7% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Harry Kane at 99.8%. Next is Lamine Yamal at 99.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-10-finish-2026?via=bro
$166.0K in total volume, with $10.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 30 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Harry Kane, priced at 99.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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