As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Harry Kane at 94.8% in Ballon d'Or Top 2 Finish 2026 — $66.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Harry Kane, is priced at 94.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.3 pts; past week: +0.8 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, Harry Kane has traded between 85.5% and 94.8%. It opened at 89.0% and last traded at 94.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 94.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.8% |
Harry Kane is favored at 94.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 95¢ | 94.8% | +0.3 pts | $5.6K | 8.5% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 76¢ | 76.0% | +1.0 pts | $5.9K | 9.0% |
| Lamine Yamal | 21¢ | 21.0% | -6.5 pts | $26.8K | 40.6% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 9¢ | 9.0% | -1.0 pts | $600 | 0.9% |
| Michael Olise | 7¢ | 6.7% | -1.4 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Lionel Messi | 5¢ | 4.9% | -1.9 pts | $2.8K | 4.2% |
| Ferran Torres | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.4 pts | $83 | 0.1% |
| Rodri | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $1.1K | 1.6% |
| Luis Diaz | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $172 | 0.3% |
| Pau Cubarsi | 2¢ | 2.1% | -0.1 pts | $438 | 0.7% |
| Marc Cucurella | 2¢ | 2.1% | — | $269 | 0.4% |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 2¢ | 1.9% | -1.2 pts | $1.9K | 2.9% |
| Achraf Hakimi | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $320 | 0.5% |
| Sadio Mané | 2¢ | 1.5% | — | $409 | 0.6% |
| Declan Rice | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $373 | 0.6% |
| Marquinhos | 1¢ | 1.1% | +0.9 pts | $259 | 0.4% |
| Fabian Ruiz | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $335 | 0.5% |
| William Saliba | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $237 | 0.4% |
| Dayot Upamecano | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $108 | 0.2% |
| Gabriel Magalhães | 1¢ | 0.9% | -0.1 pts | $3.3K | 4.9% |
| João Neves | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $258 | 0.4% |
| Erling Haaland | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.5 pts | $235 | 0.4% |
| Julián Quiñones | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $230 | 0.3% |
| Nuno Mendes | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.3 pts | $764 | 1.2% |
| Jude Bellingham | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.8K | 2.7% |
| Vinícius Júnior | 0¢ | 0.2% | -1.2 pts | $408 | 0.6% |
| Lautaro Martinez | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $2.8K | 4.3% |
| Vitinha | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $982 | 1.5% |
| Bruno Fernandes | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.0K | 6.0% |
| Willian Pacho | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.6K | 5.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$66.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.6K of it in the last 24 hours, across 30 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,429 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair-Tan | No | 1,429 | $74 |
| Vengeful-Netsuke | Yes | 1,124 | $1.1K |
| Better-Void | Yes | 306 | $290 |
| Hollow-Filing | Yes | 284 | $269 |
| Evil-Row | No | 263 | $14 |
| Empty-Blowgun | Yes | 150 | $142 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 107 | $101 |
| Unaware-Isolation | No | 100 | $5 |
| 0x55332464… | No | 93 | $5 |
| Medium-Herbs | Yes | 89 | $84 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | No | SELL | 2.4% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 4.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $157 |
| Oct 24, 11:42 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 10:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 10:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $96 |
| Oct 24, 09:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.7% | $185 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Harry Kane at 94.8%. Next is Kylian Mbappé at 76.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ballon-dor-top-2-finish-2026?via=bro
$66.0K in total volume, with $1.6K traded in the last 24 hours across 30 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Harry Kane, priced at 94.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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