As of October 24, 2026, 09:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 83.9% in Bank of Canada Decision in October? — $466.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 83.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.2 pts; past week: +65.8 pts; past month: +36.9 pts.
Since July 16, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 2.1% and 83.9%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 83.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 18.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 79.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 83.9% |
25 bps increase is favored at 83.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 84¢ | 83.9% | +4.2 pts | $160.6K | 34.4% |
| No Change | 16¢ | 16.1% | -2.8 pts | $184.0K | 39.4% |
| 50+ bps increase | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $50.3K | 10.8% |
| 25 bps decrease | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $48.5K | 10.4% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $23.1K | 4.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$466.4K has been traded on this event in total, $6.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 08:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 56,138 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 56,138 | $9.1K |
| Imaginary-Graft | Yes | 41,650 | $34.9K |
| Rotating-Patrimony | Yes | 9,442 | $7.9K |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 5,422 | $876 |
| Pretty-Mother | Yes | 3,604 | $3.0K |
| Admirable-Gokart | No | 3,530 | $570 |
| Automatic-Cappuccino | Yes | 2,967 | $2.5K |
| Limping-Baggie-Technique | Yes | 2,656 | $2.2K |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 1,963 | $317 |
| Paltry-Combat | Yes | 1,455 | $1.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.9% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 09:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.4% | $145 |
| Oct 24, 08:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.8% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.7% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.7% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.4% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 08:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 15.7% | $8 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 83.9%. Next is No Change at 16.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314?via=bro
$466.4K in total volume, with $6.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 08:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates.
25 bps increase, priced at 83.9% as of October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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