Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 83.9% in Bank of Canada Decision in October? — $466.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $6.7K.
Leading outcome
25 bps increase
84%
A 83.9% price implies roughly a 84-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +4.2 pts7D +65.8 pts30D +36.9 pts
25 bps increase83.9%
No Change16.1%
Bid
83¢
Ask
84¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 16, 2026: 2.1% – 83.9% · Opened at 14.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Bank of Canada Decision in October?
Category
Canada, Economy, Global Rates, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 27, 2026, 08:00 PM ET
Total volume
$466.4K
Volume (24h)
$6.7K
Liquidity
$57.4K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
25 bps increase — 83.9%
Resolution source
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 83.9%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.2 pts; past week: +65.8 pts; past month: +36.9 pts.

Since July 16, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 2.1% and 83.9%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 83.9%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202618.9%
Oct 18, 202615.5%
Oct 19, 202681.5%
Oct 20, 202668.7%
Oct 22, 202681.0%
Oct 23, 202679.8%
Oct 24, 202683.9%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

25 bps increase is favored at 83.9%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
25 bps increase84¢83.9%+4.2 pts$160.6K34.4%
No Change16¢16.1%-2.8 pts$184.0K39.4%
50+ bps increase0¢0.1%—$50.3K10.8%
25 bps decrease0¢0.1%—$48.5K10.4%
50+ bps decrease0¢0.1%—$23.1K4.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 83¢ / ask 84¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$466.4K has been traded on this event in total, $6.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 08:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the October 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its October 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 56,138 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No56,138$9.1K
Imaginary-GraftYes41,650$34.9K
Rotating-PatrimonyYes9,442$7.9K
Whimsical-TerminalNo5,422$876
Pretty-MotherYes3,604$3.0K
Admirable-GokartNo3,530$570
Automatic-CappuccinoYes2,967$2.5K
Limping-Baggie-TechniqueYes2,656$2.2K
Velvety-BurnNo1,963$317
Paltry-CombatYes1,455$1.2K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $328 at 81.8%BUY Yes — $210 at 80.9%BUY No — $164 at 81.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 09:31 PM ETYesBUY15.9%$3
Oct 24, 09:31 PM ETYesBUY15.9%$3
Oct 24, 09:31 PM ETYesBUY15.9%$3
Oct 24, 09:30 PM ETNoSELL84.0%$6
Oct 24, 08:26 PM ETYesSELL15.4%$145
Oct 24, 08:26 PM ETNoSELL15.8%$3
Oct 24, 08:25 PM ETNoSELL15.7%$5
Oct 24, 08:25 PM ETNoSELL15.7%$5
Oct 24, 08:25 PM ETNoSELL15.4%$5
Oct 24, 08:25 PM ETNoSELL15.7%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Bank of Canada Decision in October??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 83.9%. Next is No Change at 16.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-decision-in-october-20260715203359314?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Bank of Canada Decision in October??

$466.4K in total volume, with $6.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Bank of Canada Decision in October? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 08:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates.

What is the most likely outcome of Bank of Canada Decision in October?, according to Polymarket traders?

25 bps increase, priced at 83.9% as of October 24, 2026, 09:41 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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