As of October 24, 2026, 08:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 86.5% in Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026? — $29.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +18.5 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since March 13, 2026, Yes has traded between 20.0% and 89.5%. It opened at 39.0% and last traded at 88.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.0% |
Yes is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 86¢ | 86.5% | -1.5 pts | $29.5K | 100.0% |
| No | 14¢ | 13.5% | +1.5 pts | $29.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 84¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$29.5K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,457 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Each-Summary | Yes | 1,457 | $1.3K |
| Unsightly-Puma | Yes | 1,318 | $1.1K |
| Unwritten-Hybridization | No | 1,194 | $161 |
| Whirlwind-Specification | No | 1,087 | $147 |
| 0x3de87afa… | No | 603 | $81 |
| Admirable-Gokart | No | 551 | $74 |
| Fantastic-Refrigerator | No | 466 | $63 |
| Aromatic-Carter | Yes | 319 | $276 |
| Optimal-Canopy | Yes | 312 | $270 |
| Honest-Similarity | Yes | 296 | $256 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 10:34 AM ET | No | SELL | 8.8% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 06:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 11:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.0% | $21 |
| Oct 22, 11:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 11:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 11:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $9 |
| Oct 22, 11:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 89.0% | $9 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 86.5%. Next is No at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-in-2026?via=bro
$29.5K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates.
Yes, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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