As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 25 bps increase at 73.0% in Bank of Japan Decision in December? — $20.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 25 bps increase, is priced at 73.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +13.5 pts.
Since September 19, 2026, 25 bps increase has traded between 52.0% and 75.5%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 73.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 73.0% |
25 bps increase is favored at 73.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 73¢ | 73.0% | -1.5 pts | $8.6K | 43.0% |
| No change | 25¢ | 25.0% | — | $5.7K | 28.5% |
| 50+ bps increase | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.2 pts | $2.1K | 10.5% |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.3 pts | $1.7K | 8.4% |
| 25 bps decrease | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.2 pts | $1.9K | 9.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 74¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.0K has been traded on this event in total, $879 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 17, 2026, 07:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the uncollateralized overnight call rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Japan, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, scheduled for December 17-18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Japan calendar (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,340 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,340 | $362 |
| Crisp-Scarf | Yes | 1,080 | $788 |
| Bowed-Stud | Yes | 341 | $249 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 215 | $58 |
| Prudent-Priority | Yes | 147 | $107 |
| Square-Trust | No | 146 | $39 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 143 | $39 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 83 | $60 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 77 | $56 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 54 | $39 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 26.7% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 09:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $21 |
| Oct 24, 09:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 18.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 09:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 25 bps increase at 73.0%. Next is No change at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bank-of-japan-decision-in-december-20260918?via=bro
$20.0K in total volume, with $879 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 17, 2026, 07:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm.
25 bps increase, priced at 73.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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