Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Best AI model on November 2?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price gemini-4-argon-high at 68.5% in Best AI model on November 2? — $7.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $4.3K.
Leading outcome
gemini-4-argon-high
68%
A 68.5% price implies roughly a 68-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.5 pts
gemini-4-argon-high68.5%
Other29.0%
Bid
67¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
3¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Best AI model on November 2?
Category
AI, Tech, Recurring, AI Rankings
Scheduled end
November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$7.2K
Volume (24h)
$4.3K
Liquidity
$2.0K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
gemini-4-argon-high — 68.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, gemini-4-argon-high, is priced at 68.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.5 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

gemini-4-argon-high is favored at 68.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
gemini-4-argon-high68¢68.5%-2.5 pts$2.7K37.4%
Other29¢29.0%+2.0 pts$2.3K31.7%
claude-fable-5.1-max1¢1.1%-0.5 pts$1.1K15.9%
claude-opus-5.5-high1¢0.6%-1.8 pts$1.1K15.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.2K has been traded on this event in total, $4.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 818 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No818$258
Far-PlanYes400$274
Belated-GlueNo369$116
Dutiful-ContourYes308$211
Shrill-TaxYes275$189
Male-CacaoNo212$67
Hideous-RacerYes200$137
Sore-PitchingYes131$90
Charming-Kidney-ImaginationYes45$31
Candid-EncirclementYes40$27

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $223 at 72.3%BUY Yes — $202 at 73.3%SELL Yes — $142 at 69.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:01 PM ETYesBUY66.1%$14
Oct 24, 03:01 PM ETYesBUY29.0%$6
Oct 24, 03:01 PM ETNoBUY31.0%$11
Oct 24, 02:05 PM ETYesSELL69.0%$142
Oct 24, 02:05 PM ETNoBUY31.0%$6
Oct 24, 01:07 PM ETNoBUY74.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:07 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$1
Oct 24, 01:07 PM ETYesSELL65.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:58 PM ETYesBUY29.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:51 PM ETYesBUY29.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Best AI model on November 2??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is gemini-4-argon-high at 68.5%. Next is Other at 29.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-november-2?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Best AI model on November 2??

$7.2K in total volume, with $4.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Best AI model on November 2? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 02, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Best AI model on November 2?, according to Polymarket traders?

gemini-4-argon-high, priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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