As of October 24, 2026, 06:26 PM ET, Polymarket traders price gemini-4-argon-high at 98.3% in Best AI model on October 26? — $20.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, gemini-4-argon-high, is priced at 98.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.1 pts; past week: +23.3 pts.
Since October 13, 2026, gemini-4-argon-high has traded between 67.5% and 98.3%. It opened at 78.5% and last traded at 98.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.3% |
gemini-4-argon-high is favored at 98.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gemini-4-argon-high | 98¢ | 98.3% | +1.1 pts | $9.9K | 48.2% |
| Other | 1¢ | 1.5% | -0.9 pts | $7.1K | 34.6% |
| claude-opus-5.5-high | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.4 pts | $1.8K | 8.7% |
| claude-fable-5.1-max | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.1 pts | $1.8K | 8.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$20.6K has been traded on this event in total, $732 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,573 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,573 | $27 |
| Scientific-Oxford-Order | Yes | 714 | $702 |
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 440 | $432 |
| Sandy-Wife | Yes | 343 | $337 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 298 | $292 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 238 | $4 |
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 220 | $216 |
| Alienated-Cannibal | Yes | 183 | $180 |
| Fabulous-Mukluk-Convert | No | 153 | $3 |
| Soulful-Remains-Chorus | No | 149 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:56 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.1% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 11:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:16 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 02:58 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 11:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is gemini-4-argon-high at 98.3%. Next is Other at 1.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/best-ai-model-on-october-26?via=bro
$20.6K in total volume, with $732 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
gemini-4-argon-high, priced at 98.3% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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