As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 79.0% in Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? — $3.95M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 79.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.
Since October 24, 2025, No has traded between 39.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 79.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 79.0% |
No is favored at 79.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 79¢ | 79.0% | +1.5 pts | $3.95M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 21¢ | 21.0% | -1.5 pts | $3.95M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.95M has been traded on this event in total, $870 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 374,097 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vital-Fratricide | Yes | 374,097 | $78.6K |
| Cheerful-Tectonics | Yes | 365,599 | $76.8K |
| Hefty-Sunshine | No | 236,161 | $186.6K |
| True-Grandparent | No | 140,632 | $111.1K |
| Inexperienced-Lentil | Yes | 101,869 | $21.4K |
| Far-Flung-Channel | No | 56,878 | $44.9K |
| jaja5050 | No | 43,073 | $34.0K |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | No | 38,727 | $30.6K |
| Sociable-Chocolate | Yes | 30,346 | $6.4K |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | Yes | 29,577 | $6.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 07:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $566 |
| Oct 24, 07:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.2% | $642 |
| Oct 24, 12:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 11:24 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 12:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 22.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 79.0%. Next is Yes at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026?via=bro
$3.95M in total volume, with $870 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/.
No, priced at 79.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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