Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 79.0% in Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? — $3.95M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $870.
Leading outcome
No
79%
A 79.0% price implies roughly a 79-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.5 pts7D −3.5 pts30D −9.5 pts
No79.0%
Yes21.0%
Bid
20¢
Ask
22¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 24, 2025: 39.0% – 82.0% · Opened at 78.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Category
Taxes, referendum, referendums midterms, Fiscal, Politics, Elections
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$3.95M
Volume (24h)
$870
Liquidity
$73.7K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 79.0%
Resolution source
https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 79.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.

Since October 24, 2025, No has traded between 39.0% and 82.0%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 79.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202675.5%
Oct 18, 202677.5%
Oct 19, 202678.5%
Oct 20, 202678.5%
Oct 22, 202678.0%
Oct 23, 202677.5%
Oct 24, 202679.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 79.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No79¢79.0%+1.5 pts$3.95M100.0%
Yes21¢21.0%-1.5 pts$3.95M100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 22¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$3.95M has been traded on this event in total, $870 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution source: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 374,097 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Vital-FratricideYes374,097$78.6K
Cheerful-TectonicsYes365,599$76.8K
Hefty-SunshineNo236,161$186.6K
True-GrandparentNo140,632$111.1K
Inexperienced-LentilYes101,869$21.4K
Far-Flung-ChannelNo56,878$44.9K
jaja5050No43,073$34.0K
Extra-Large-BegoniaNo38,727$30.6K
Sociable-ChocolateYes30,346$6.4K
Appropriate-Antennae-LayerYes29,577$6.2K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $642 at 79.2%BUY No — $566 at 80.0%BUY No — $223 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:29 PM ETNoBUY80.0%$4
Oct 24, 07:28 PM ETNoBUY80.0%$566
Oct 24, 07:28 PM ETNoBUY81.0%$16
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETNoBUY80.0%$1
Oct 24, 06:00 PM ETNoBUY79.2%$642
Oct 24, 12:29 PM ETNoBUY78.0%$7
Oct 24, 11:24 AM ETNoSELL77.0%$5
Oct 24, 09:23 AM ETNoSELL77.0%$12
Oct 24, 12:55 AM ETYesSELL22.0%$3
Oct 24, 12:47 AM ETYesBUY23.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 79.0%. Next is Yes at 21.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/billionaire-one-time-wealth-tax-passes-in-california-election-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026??

$3.95M in total volume, with $870 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/.

What is the most likely outcome of Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 79.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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