As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price S&P 500 at 73.5% in Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 — $964.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, S&P 500, is priced at 73.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.5 pts; past month: +20.0 pts.
Since December 22, 2025, S&P 500 has traded between 9.0% and 74.0%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 73.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 73.0% |
S&P 500 is favored at 73.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 74¢ | 73.5% | — | $203.6K | 21.1% |
| Bitcoin | 17¢ | 17.0% | +0.5 pts | $459.1K | 47.6% |
| Gold | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.5 pts | $301.2K | 31.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 73¢ / ask 74¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$964.0K has been traded on this event in total, $93 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the asset which has the best performance in 2026 among Bitcoin, Gold, and the S&P 500 with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the year for each asset. The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on January 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT on December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for Bitcoin will be Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT in the chart with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar and the mouse on the candle for the relevant minute (the “time tools” selection may be used to view historical candles). The percentage change in Gold will be calculated by comparing the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2025 to the official Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) Close price for the last trading day in 2026, as reported by MarketWatch. The resolution source for Gold will be MarketWatch, specifically the close values reported for Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) under “Historical Quotes” at https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/gc00. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 36,820 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 36,820 | $9.8K |
| Gifted-Ellipse | Yes | 30,677 | $22.5K |
| Sugary-Dessert | No | 29,396 | $7.8K |
| Amusing-Macaroon | Yes | 7,255 | $5.3K |
| Swift-Lightning | Yes | 3,841 | $2.8K |
| Punctual-Mime | Yes | 3,561 | $2.6K |
| Short-Term-Chopsticks | No | 3,412 | $904 |
| Kindhearted-Bandwidth | Yes | 3,143 | $2.3K |
| Enchanting-Texture | Yes | 3,136 | $2.3K |
| Accurate-Spirit | No | 2,000 | $530 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.7% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 08:36 AM ET | No | SELL | 26.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 24.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 06:19 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $75 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is S&P 500 at 73.5%. Next is Bitcoin at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-vs-gold-vs-sp-500-in-2026?via=bro
$964.0K in total volume, with $93 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT.
S&P 500, priced at 73.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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