As of October 24, 2026, 08:21 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026? — $6.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -5.0 pts.
Since June 01, 2026, No has traded between 63.0% and 91.0%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 87.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 86.5% |
No is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.5% | -3.5 pts | $6.6K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 13.5% | +3.5 pts | $6.6K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.6K has been traded on this event in total, $43 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If any Blue Origin New Glenn rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” New Glenn rocket refers to any Blue Origin rocket publicly identified by Blue Origin as New Glenn, including any newly manufactured, rebuilt, replacement, or reused New Glenn vehicle. The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin, as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of New Glenn will have no bearing on this market’s resolution.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,444 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tasty-Gliding-Grasp | Yes | 4,444 | $600 |
| Each-Summary | No | 4,250 | $3.7K |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 388 | $52 |
| Past-Punishment | No | 244 | $211 |
| Guilty-Spring | No | 202 | $174 |
| Gifted-Rancher | No | 149 | $129 |
| 0xbdc28b3e… | Yes | 110 | $15 |
| Glum-Kitty | No | 95 | $82 |
| 0xe3aeb10c… | Yes | 71 | $10 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 54 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 86.9% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 09:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 06:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.7% | $24 |
| Oct 14, 05:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $13 |
| Oct 13, 03:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $48 |
| Oct 11, 10:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 04:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 04:16 PM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/blue-origin-new-glenn-launch-in-2026?via=bro
$6.6K in total volume, with $43 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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