As of October 24, 2026, 09:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mauricio Lara at 51.5% in Mauricio Lara vs. Carlos Ornelas — $114 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mauricio Lara, is priced at 51.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.5 pts.
Since August 27, 2026, Mauricio Lara has traded between 50.0% and 89.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 51.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 51.5% |
Mauricio Lara is favored at 51.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Lara | 52¢ | 51.5% | — | $114 | 100.0% |
| Carlos Ornelas | 48¢ | 48.5% | — | $114 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 93¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$114 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Mauricio Lara" if Mauricio Lara is officially declared the winner of the fight against Carlos Ornelas, scheduled for August 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Carlos Ornelas" if Carlos Ornelas is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled before it begins, or postponed beyond September 13, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from governing body.
Resolution source: https://www.espn.com/boxing/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 24 shares of Mauricio Lara.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proper-Monsoon | Mauricio Lara | 24 | $12 |
| Winged-Buyer | Carlos Ornelas | 24 | $12 |
| Carefree-Doorpost | Mauricio Lara | 23 | $12 |
| Grouchy-Channel | Carlos Ornelas | 23 | $11 |
| Subdued-Criteria | Mauricio Lara | 23 | $12 |
| Great-Stepson-Mainland | Carlos Ornelas | 23 | $11 |
| Made-Up-Trigger | Mauricio Lara | 20 | $10 |
| Practical-Euphonium | Carlos Ornelas | 20 | $10 |
| Wide-Pressure | Mauricio Lara | 13 | $7 |
| Heavenly-Destination | Carlos Ornelas | 13 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 03:36 AM ET | Carlos Ornelas | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Aug 29, 11:31 AM ET | Carlos Ornelas | BUY | 11.0% | $1 |
| Aug 28, 10:24 PM ET | Mauricio Lara | BUY | 50.0% | $12 |
| Aug 28, 10:24 PM ET | Carlos Ornelas | BUY | 50.0% | $10 |
| Aug 28, 10:24 PM ET | Carlos Ornelas | BUY | 50.0% | $12 |
| Aug 28, 10:22 PM ET | Mauricio Lara | BUY | 50.0% | $12 |
| Aug 28, 10:22 PM ET | Carlos Ornelas | BUY | 50.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mauricio Lara at 51.5%. Next is Carlos Ornelas at 48.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/boxing-lara-ornela-2026-08-30?via=bro
$114 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.espn.com/boxing/.
Mauricio Lara, priced at 51.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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