Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad

As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lula at 81.5% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad — $145.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $11.0K.
Leading outcome
Lula
82%
A 81.5% price implies roughly a 82-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +6.0 pts7D +11.0 pts
Lula81.5%
Candidate A50.0%
Bid
80¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 05, 2026: 54.0% – 81.5% · Opened at 54.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
Category
Brazil, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Global Elections
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$145.7K
Volume (24h)
$11.0K
Liquidity
$98.4K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
Lula — 81.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Lula, is priced at 81.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts; past week: +11.0 pts.

Since October 05, 2026, Lula has traded between 54.0% and 81.5%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 81.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202671.5%
Oct 16, 202663.5%
Oct 18, 202670.0%
Oct 19, 202667.5%
Oct 20, 202669.0%
Oct 23, 202675.5%
Oct 24, 202681.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Lula is favored at 81.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Lula82¢81.5%+6.0 pts$82.0K56.3%
Candidate A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro18¢18.5%-6.5 pts$63.7K43.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 83¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$145.7K has been traded on this event in total, $11.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from voters abroad, meaning votes cast outside Brazil and reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under “Exterior”. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won abroad. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 20,044 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No20,044$3.7K
Whimsical-TerminalNo3,262$603
Velvety-RutabagaYes2,707$2.2K
Worthy-BrotherinlawYes2,100$1.7K
Powerless-BijouNo2,055$380
Rundown-RegardYes2,037$1.7K
Careful-BunchYes1,990$1.6K
Favorite-LatitudeYes1,795$1.5K
Cavernous-Beach-SquashYes1,627$1.3K
Selfish-Tune-BusinessmanYes1,555$1.3K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL Yes — $809 at 80.9%BUY Yes — $657 at 77.0%BUY Yes — $560 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:41 PM ETYesSELL81.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:40 PM ETYesSELL81.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:39 PM ETYesSELL81.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:39 PM ETYesBUY82.8%$537
Oct 24, 07:31 PM ETYesBUY82.0%$62
Oct 24, 07:27 PM ETYesBUY82.2%$294
Oct 24, 07:27 PM ETYesBUY83.0%$151
Oct 24, 07:00 PM ETYesSELL79.8%$61
Oct 24, 07:00 PM ETYesSELL80.9%$809
Oct 24, 07:00 PM ETNoBUY21.0%$6

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lula at 81.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-abroad?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad?

$145.7K in total volume, with $11.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad, according to Polymarket traders?

Lula, priced at 81.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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