As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lula at 99.5% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Ceará — $4.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lula, is priced at 99.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: +0.7 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, Lula has traded between 97.0% and 99.5%. It opened at 97.0% and last traded at 99.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 98.4% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 99.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 99.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 99.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 99.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 99.5% |
Lula is favored at 99.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lula | 100¢ | 99.5% | +0.1 pts | $2.4K | 60.7% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $1.6K | 39.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 99¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Ceará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 823 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 823 | $819 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 552 | $3 |
| Impish-Tract | Yes | 278 | $277 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 216 | $1 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 205 | $1 |
| Cheery-Preparation | Yes | 195 | $194 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 171 | $1 |
| Essential-Diarist | No | 53 | $0 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 30 | $0 |
| Dark-Corduroy-Airfare | Yes | 28 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 0.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 0.8% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 03:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 12:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $170 |
| Oct 23, 10:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 99.1% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 08:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.5% | $55 |
| Oct 23, 03:13 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.5% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 02:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $21 |
| Oct 22, 08:54 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lula at 99.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-ceara?via=bro
$4.0K in total volume, with $1.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Lula, priced at 99.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.