As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lula at 88.0% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Pará — $162.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lula, is priced at 88.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +7.5 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, Lula has traded between 69.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 69.0% and last traded at 84.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
Lula is favored at 88.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lula | 88¢ | 88.0% | — | $79.5K | 48.8% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Flavio Bolsonaro | 12¢ | 12.5% | +0.5 pts | $83.3K | 51.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 87¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$162.9K has been traded on this event in total, $23.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Pará. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 28,967 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 28,967 | $3.5K |
| Skeletal-Manipulation | Yes | 11,345 | $10.0K |
| Each-Jeans | Yes | 4,910 | $4.3K |
| Sardonic-Lentil | Yes | 4,480 | $3.9K |
| Wilted-Bump | Yes | 2,500 | $2.2K |
| Lonely-Jacket | Yes | 2,000 | $1.8K |
| Known-Use | Yes | 1,562 | $1.4K |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 1,464 | $176 |
| Understated-Pressurization | No | 1,462 | $175 |
| Dental-Liquid | Yes | 1,388 | $1.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $112 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 12.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $130 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 12.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:53 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 87.0% | $70 |
| Oct 24, 04:51 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $70 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $181 |
| Oct 24, 04:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 12.4% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 04:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.9% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 04:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lula at 88.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-para?via=bro
$162.9K in total volume, with $23.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Lula, priced at 88.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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