Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lula at 99.0% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte — $8.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.3K.
Leading outcome
Lula
99%
A 99.0% price implies roughly a 99-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.3 pts7D +2.4 pts
Lula99.0%
Candidate A50.0%
Bid
98¢
Ask
99¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 05, 2026: 90.0% – 99.2% · Opened at 90.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte
Category
Brazil, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Global Elections
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.0K
Volume (24h)
$1.3K
Liquidity
$36.4K
Markets
8
Leading outcome
Lula — 99.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Lula, is priced at 99.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.3 pts; past week: +2.4 pts.

Since October 05, 2026, Lula has traded between 90.0% and 99.2%. It opened at 90.0% and last traded at 99.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202697.4%
Oct 16, 202698.2%
Oct 18, 202697.9%
Oct 19, 202697.4%
Oct 20, 202698.4%
Oct 23, 202699.2%
Oct 24, 202699.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Lula is favored at 99.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Lula99¢99.0%-0.3 pts$5.6K70.0%
Candidate A50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate B50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate C50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Candidate E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Flavio Bolsonaro1¢1.1%+0.7 pts$2.4K30.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 98¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Rio Grande do Norte. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Norte. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,297 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Impish-TractYes1,297$1.3K
0xa5ef39c3…No749$8
Admirable-SamuraiYes551$545
Unselfish-Mineral-SundayNo504$5
Cheery-PreparationYes367$364
Delightful-SpotlightYes320$317
Required-HornNo300$3
Snappy-RoosterNo268$3
Grim-GarageNo244$3
Handy-RuffleYes230$228

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $1.3K at 99.4%BUY Yes — $696 at 93.2%BUY Yes — $366 at 99.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:56 PM ETYesSELL99.0%$1
Oct 24, 12:32 PM ETNoBUY1.1%$0
Oct 24, 12:25 PM ETYesBUY99.4%$1.3K
Oct 24, 09:13 AM ETYesBUY0.8%$0
Oct 24, 09:03 AM ETYesBUY0.7%$0
Oct 24, 09:03 AM ETYesSELL99.0%$3
Oct 23, 07:31 PM ETNoBUY99.8%$12
Oct 23, 08:55 AM ETYesBUY99.5%$366
Oct 23, 08:54 AM ETNoBUY99.5%$149
Oct 23, 08:54 AM ETNoBUY99.4%$30

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lula at 99.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-1st-place-in-rio-grande-do-norte?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte?

$8.0K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.

When does Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Norte, according to Polymarket traders?

Lula, priced at 99.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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