As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 73.0% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Any Candidate Gets Most Votes Ever? — $14.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 73.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.0 pts.
Since October 06, 2026, Yes has traded between 55.0% and 91.0%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 73.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 73.0% |
Yes is favored at 73.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73¢ | 73.0% | — | $14.5K | 100.0% |
| No | 27¢ | 27.0% | — | $14.5K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 74¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A presidential election was held in Brazil on October 4, 2026, and a runoff is scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate receives 60,346,000 or more valid votes in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, breaking the record for the most votes ever received by a candidate in a Brazilian presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The current record is 60,345,999 votes, received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election. Exactly 60,345,999 votes would tie, not break, the record and would resolve this market to "No". This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn’t known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,030 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Careful-West | No | 2,030 | $548 |
| Orange-Whistle-Shoehorn | No | 1,652 | $446 |
| Strict-Couple | Yes | 1,301 | $950 |
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 779 | $569 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 500 | $135 |
| Well-To-Do-Win-Divider | Yes | 385 | $281 |
| Inborn-Tissue | Yes | 235 | $172 |
| Sardonic-Lentil | Yes | 208 | $152 |
| Blond-Wriggler | Yes | 161 | $118 |
| Untrue-Area | Yes | 145 | $105 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:04 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 03:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $251 |
| Oct 24, 03:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $116 |
| Oct 24, 03:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 26.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 74.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 73.0%. Next is No at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-any-candidate-gets-most-votes-ever?via=bro
$14.5K in total volume, with $1.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 73.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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