As of October 24, 2026, 07:54 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 78-80% at 55.0% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Turnout — $72.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 78-80%, is priced at 55.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.0 pts; past week: -3.5 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, 78-80% has traded between 46.0% and 61.5%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 55.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 55.0% |
78-80% is favored at 55.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78-80% | 55¢ | 55.0% | -5.0 pts | $13.6K | 18.8% |
| 76-78% | 32¢ | 32.5% | +7.5 pts | $19.2K | 26.5% |
| 80-82% | 6¢ | 6.0% | -4.0 pts | $22.5K | 31.2% |
| <76% | 2¢ | 2.5% | -2.2 pts | $12.2K | 16.8% |
| 82%+ | 2¢ | 1.6% | +0.1 pts | $4.9K | 6.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 54¢ / ask 56¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$72.3K has been traded on this event in total, $17.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate in the second round of the specified election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of eligible voters (see 2022 example: https://sig.tse.jus.br/ords/dwapr/r/seai/sig-eleicao-resultados/home-comparecimento-votacao?p0_ano=2022). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be official information published by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,557 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,557 | $2.1K |
| Winged-Tart | No | 1,533 | $690 |
| Single-Antique | Yes | 1,493 | $821 |
| Pushy-Simplification-Hawk | Yes | 1,150 | $632 |
| Traumatic-Fiberglass | Yes | 600 | $330 |
| Prize-Maybe | Yes | 384 | $211 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 366 | $201 |
| Careful-Bunch | Yes | 317 | $174 |
| Gleeful-Anything-Spyglass | Yes | 311 | $171 |
| Valid-Platter | Yes | 291 | $160 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 04:57 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 04:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 43.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 02:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 02:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:16 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 78-80% at 55.0%. Next is 76-78% at 32.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-turnout?via=bro
$72.3K in total volume, with $17.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
78-80%, priced at 55.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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