Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City

As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Flavio Bolsonaro at 92.8% in Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City — $5.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.2K.
Leading outcome
Flavio Bolsonaro
93%
A 92.8% price implies roughly a 93-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.6 pts
Flavio Bolsonaro92.8%
Other50.0%
Bid
93¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
0¢
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Range since October 20, 2026: 92.8% – 96.4% · Opened at 94.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City
Category
Brazil, Politics, Elections, Main Election, Global Elections
Scheduled end
October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.0K
Volume (24h)
$1.2K
Liquidity
$28.6K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
Flavio Bolsonaro — 92.8%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Flavio Bolsonaro, is priced at 92.8%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.6 pts.

Since October 20, 2026, Flavio Bolsonaro has traded between 92.8% and 96.4%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 92.8%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Flavio Bolsonaro is favored at 92.8%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Flavio Bolsonaro93¢92.8%-3.6 pts$2.5K49.7%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Lula4¢4.1%+0.5 pts$2.5K50.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.0K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro (Rio de Janeiro state). Only valid votes cast at polling places in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, as reported by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) for that municipality, will count. Votes cast abroad will not count. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 925 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No925$67
Shady-ToolYes576$534
Focused-ToreadorYes571$530
Cool-PattypanYes206$191
Belated-GlueNo180$13
frosique1Yes60$56
Gleaming-HandlebarNo60$4
Straight-WrinkleNo55$4
Stale-CashewNo51$4
Detailed-ParachuteNo39$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $547 at 95.0%BUY Yes — $186 at 91.0%BUY No — $143 at 94.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:37 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$5
Oct 24, 08:31 PM ETYesSELL5.3%$26
Oct 24, 08:31 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$55
Oct 24, 08:31 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$58
Oct 24, 08:31 PM ETNoBUY96.9%$58
Oct 24, 02:55 PM ETYesBUY5.0%$20
Oct 24, 02:55 PM ETNoBUY4.8%$1
Oct 24, 02:55 PM ETNoBUY4.8%$1
Oct 24, 02:34 PM ETNoBUY96.7%$2
Oct 24, 12:56 PM ETYesBUY96.9%$19

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Flavio Bolsonaro at 92.8%. Next is Other at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/brazil-presidential-election-second-round-winner-in-rio-de-janeiro-city?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City?

$5.0K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City end?

The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Winner in Rio de Janeiro City, according to Polymarket traders?

Flavio Bolsonaro, priced at 92.8% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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