As of October 24, 2026, 09:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Down at 51.0% in Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET — $1.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Down, is priced at 51.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts.
Down is favored at 51.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 51¢ | 51.0% | +1.0 pts | $1.9K | 100.0% |
| Up | 49¢ | 49.0% | -1.0 pts | $1.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 48¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Resolution source: https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 669 shares of Up.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xb051ddab… | Up | 669 | $328 |
| Lively-Authenticity | Down | 479 | $244 |
| Fixed-Ceramic | Up | 359 | $176 |
| Zesty-Railroad | Up | 334 | $164 |
| Keen-Preference | Down | 212 | $108 |
| Writhing-Yarmulke | Down | 187 | $95 |
| Extraneous-Paperwork | Down | 120 | $61 |
| Amazing-Mail | Down | 118 | $60 |
| Rural-Wharf-Parable | Down | 114 | $58 |
| 0x53302d27… | Up | 103 | $50 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:06 PM ET | Up | BUY | 38.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 09:03 PM ET | Up | BUY | 43.0% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 09:02 PM ET | Up | BUY | 41.3% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 08:58 PM ET | Up | SELL | 51.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:58 PM ET | Up | BUY | 54.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:57 PM ET | Up | BUY | 53.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:57 PM ET | Up | BUY | 53.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:56 PM ET | Up | BUY | 53.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 08:55 PM ET | Down | BUY | 51.8% | $100 |
| Oct 24, 08:53 PM ET | Up | BUY | 52.7% | $48 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Down at 51.0%. Next is Up at 49.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/btc-updown-4h-1792886400?via=bro
$1.9K in total volume, with $1.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 25, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams.
Down, priced at 51.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.