As of October 24, 2026, 07:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mike McGuire (D) at 95.0% in CA-01 House Election Winner — $50.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mike McGuire (D), is priced at 95.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -1.9 pts.
Since January 28, 2026, Mike McGuire (D) has traded between 47.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 95.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.0% |
Mike McGuire (D) is favored at 95.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike McGuire (D) | 95¢ | 95.0% | -1.0 pts | $38.6K | 77.2% |
| James Gallagher (R) | 5¢ | 5.1% | +1.2 pts | $11.4K | 22.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 96¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$50.0K has been traded on this event in total, $425 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,525 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,525 | $76 |
| Sophisticated-Posterior | Yes | 1,007 | $957 |
| Little-Gold | Yes | 998 | $949 |
| Frozen-Car | Yes | 620 | $589 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | No | 580 | $29 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 238 | $12 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 227 | $11 |
| Small-Fellow-Mandolin | No | 220 | $11 |
| Lighthearted-Relation | No | 202 | $10 |
| Raw-Affect | Yes | 200 | $190 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.5% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 11:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.4% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 11:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mike McGuire (D) at 95.0%. Next is James Gallagher (R) at 5.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ca-01-house-election-winner?via=bro
$50.0K in total volume, with $425 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Mike McGuire (D), priced at 95.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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