As of October 24, 2026, 06:31 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mike Thompson at 77.0% in CA-04 House Election Winner (by individual) — $17.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mike Thompson, is priced at 77.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -3.5 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since July 06, 2026, Mike Thompson has traded between 64.5% and 87.5%. It opened at 85.5% and last traded at 77.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 78.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 77.0% |
Mike Thompson is favored at 77.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thompson | 77¢ | 77.0% | -0.5 pts | $10.5K | 61.8% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Eric Jones | 22¢ | 22.5% | -0.5 pts | $6.5K | 38.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.0K has been traded on this event in total, $315 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 806 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 806 | $185 |
| Intentional-Engagement | Yes | 505 | $389 |
| Expensive-Struggle | No | 351 | $81 |
| Little-Gold | Yes | 284 | $219 |
| Gifted-Rancher | No | 274 | $63 |
| Swift-Iris | Yes | 266 | $205 |
| Majestic-Dysfunction | Yes | 221 | $170 |
| Those-Skywalk | Yes | 165 | $127 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 133 | $102 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 108 | $25 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:39 PM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 06:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 06:39 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 06:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 24.1% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mike Thompson at 77.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ca-04-house-election-winner-by-individual-20260630172946503?via=bro
$17.0K in total volume, with $315 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Mike Thompson, priced at 77.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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