As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Scott Wiener at 77.5% in CA-11 House Election Winner (Individual) — $21.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Scott Wiener, is priced at 77.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -2.0 pts; past month: +12.0 pts.
Since July 10, 2026, Scott Wiener has traded between 39.0% and 80.0%. It opened at 47.0% and last traded at 78.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 78.0% |
Scott Wiener is favored at 77.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wiener | 78¢ | 77.5% | — | $7.2K | 33.4% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Connie Chan | 22¢ | 21.5% | +0.5 pts | $14.4K | 66.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 76¢ / ask 79¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$21.6K has been traded on this event in total, $120 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,305 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,305 | $519 |
| Whimsical-Seller | Yes | 790 | $612 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 433 | $336 |
| Frozen-Car | Yes | 431 | $334 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 209 | $162 |
| Tense-Fort | No | 187 | $42 |
| Knobby-Manufacturing | Yes | 177 | $137 |
| 0x6b25c5c4… | Yes | 110 | $85 |
| 0xffd7b4f3… | Yes | 89 | $69 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 78 | $60 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.8% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 24.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 05:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 22.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Scott Wiener at 77.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ca-11-house-election-winner-individual-20260710015446690?via=bro
$21.6K in total volume, with $120 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Scott Wiener, priced at 77.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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