As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Aisha Wahab at 90.5% in CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual) — $37.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Aisha Wahab, is priced at 90.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +12.0 pts.
Since July 10, 2026, Aisha Wahab has traded between 45.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 48.0% and last traded at 90.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.5% |
Aisha Wahab is favored at 90.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisha Wahab | 90¢ | 90.5% | -0.5 pts | $20.2K | 53.2% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Melissa Hernandez | 8¢ | 8.2% | +0.1 pts | $17.8K | 46.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 89¢ / ask 92¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$37.9K has been traded on this event in total, $82 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,151 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 3,151 | $299 |
| Expensive-Struggle | Yes | 1,319 | $1.2K |
| Little-Gold | Yes | 1,028 | $930 |
| Powerless-Bijou | Yes | 671 | $607 |
| Whimsical-Seller | Yes | 379 | $343 |
| Primary-Agent | Yes | 247 | $224 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 201 | $19 |
| Charming-Grape | No | 190 | $18 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 117 | $11 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 113 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.1% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.9% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:26 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.9% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.8% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.9% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:27 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 90.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 04:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Aisha Wahab at 90.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ca-14-house-election-winner-individual-20260710020305940?via=bro
$37.9K in total volume, with $82 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Aisha Wahab, priced at 90.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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