As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Jay Obernolte (R) at 95.7% in CA-23 House Election Winner — $110.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Jay Obernolte (R), is priced at 95.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.7 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since January 28, 2026, Jay Obernolte (R) has traded between 47.0% and 98.2%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 95.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.7% |
Jay Obernolte (R) is favored at 95.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Obernolte (R) | 96¢ | 95.7% | -1.7 pts | $40.9K | 37.0% |
| Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) | 3¢ | 3.0% | +1.3 pts | $69.6K | 63.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$110.4K has been traded on this event in total, $88 of it in the last 24 hours, across 8 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,959 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| SnowLover7 | Yes | 2,959 | $2.8K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,188 | $94 |
| Tangible-Fuel | No | 1,444 | $62 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 801 | $767 |
| Our-Dough | Yes | 661 | $632 |
| Attached-Schedule | No | 352 | $15 |
| Prickly-Eyrie | Yes | 330 | $316 |
| Little-Gold | No | 243 | $10 |
| Tense-Fort | No | 188 | $8 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 170 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 09:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.6% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 05:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.8% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 10:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 09:14 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 11:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 11:35 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $5.3K |
| Oct 20, 11:34 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 98.0% | $1.9K |
| Oct 20, 05:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.2% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Jay Obernolte (R) at 95.7%. Next is Tessa Lynn Hodge (D) at 3.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ca-23-house-election-winner?via=bro
$110.4K in total volume, with $88 traded in the last 24 hours across 8 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Jay Obernolte (R), priced at 95.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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