As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Luz Rivas at 94.0% in CA-29 House Election Winner (Individual) — $6.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Luz Rivas, is priced at 94.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +6.0 pts.
Since July 10, 2026, Luz Rivas has traded between 75.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 94.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 93.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.0% |
Luz Rivas is favored at 94.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luz Rivas | 94¢ | 94.0% | — | $2.1K | 33.9% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Angélica María Dueñas | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.2 pts | $4.2K | 66.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-29 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 298 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Repentant-Graphic | Yes | 298 | $280 |
| Whimsical-Seller | Yes | 265 | $249 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 227 | $14 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 204 | $12 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 113 | $7 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 65 | $4 |
| Liquid-Argument | Yes | 54 | $50 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 53 | $3 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 50 | $47 |
| Evil-Row | No | 30 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 06:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 94.0% | $10 |
| Oct 17, 06:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 12:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 11:30 PM ET | No | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 15, 11:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 11:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 92.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 10:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $1 |
| Oct 10, 10:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.4% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 10:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.1% | $0 |
| Oct 10, 10:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.1% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Luz Rivas at 94.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ca-29-house-election-winner-individual-20260710020355243?via=bro
$6.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Luz Rivas, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.