As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Steve Hilton at 67.5% in California Governor Election: Fresno County Winner — $12.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Steve Hilton, is priced at 67.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +12.0 pts.
Since September 01, 2026, Steve Hilton has traded between 44.0% and 83.0%. It opened at 44.0% and last traded at 67.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 65.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 67.5% |
Steve Hilton is favored at 67.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Hilton | 68¢ | 67.5% | -0.5 pts | $7.2K | 56.2% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Xavier Becerra | 30¢ | 30.5% | -0.5 pts | $5.6K | 43.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 65¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$12.8K has been traded on this event in total, $198 of it in the last 24 hours, across 13 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that receives the most valid votes from Fresno County in the general election for Governor of California, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of California, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Fresno County.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 697 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 697 | $226 |
| Outrageous-Durian-Pawnshop | Yes | 496 | $335 |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | Yes | 326 | $220 |
| Measly-Gelatin | No | 255 | $83 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 243 | $79 |
| Odd-Relish | Yes | 241 | $163 |
| Powerless-Bijou | No | 136 | $44 |
| Cool-Pattypan | Yes | 107 | $72 |
| Forthright-Forager | Yes | 105 | $71 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 82 | $27 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 64.5% | $25 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 10:09 AM ET | No | SELL | 30.9% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 12:12 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 67.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 08:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 72.6% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Steve Hilton at 67.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-fresno-county-winner?via=bro
$12.8K in total volume, with $198 traded in the last 24 hours across 13 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
Steve Hilton, priced at 67.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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