As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 12.5M-13M at 33.0% in California Governor Election: Turnout — $22.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 12.5M-13M, is priced at 33.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +17.5 pts; past month: -10.5 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, 12.5M-13M has traded between 13.0% and 43.5%. It opened at 42.0% and last traded at 33.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 39.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 33.0% |
12.5M-13M is favored at 33.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5M-13M | 33¢ | 33.0% | -0.5 pts | $6.4K | 28.0% |
| 13M-13.5M | 27¢ | 27.0% | +1.0 pts | $4.1K | 18.1% |
| 12M-12.5M | 13¢ | 13.0% | +4.5 pts | $1.1K | 4.8% |
| 14M-14.5M | 11¢ | 10.5% | +4.5 pts | $1.0K | 4.5% |
| 14.5M+ | 10¢ | 10.2% | -6.5 pts | $1.1K | 4.9% |
| 13.5M-14M | 10¢ | 9.5% | +2.5 pts | $1.6K | 7.0% |
| 11M-11.5M | 6¢ | 5.8% | -1.6 pts | $1.5K | 6.4% |
| <10.5M | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.3 pts | $1.7K | 7.3% |
| 11.5M-12M | 2¢ | 1.7% | -1.8 pts | $894 | 3.9% |
| 10.5M-11M | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $3.5K | 15.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 32¢ / ask 34¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.8K has been traded on this event in total, $568 of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,003 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noxious-Fibrosis-Coaster | Yes | 1,003 | $331 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 696 | $466 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 562 | $377 |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | Yes | 355 | $117 |
| Trivial-Newsstand | Yes | 300 | $99 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 193 | $129 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 114 | $76 |
| Rural-Virtue | No | 51 | $34 |
| Tragic-Scorpion | Yes | 50 | $16 |
| Alert-Champagne-Moth | No | 42 | $28 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.8% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:08 AM ET | No | BUY | 77.0% | $16 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 12.5M-13M at 33.0%. Next is 13M-13.5M at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-governor-election-turnout?via=bro
$22.8K in total volume, with $568 traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
12.5M-13M, priced at 33.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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