As of October 24, 2026, 08:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 78.0% in California Immunology Research Bond Proposition — $3.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 78.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +35.0 pts; past month: +23.0 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, Yes has traded between 33.0% and 78.5%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 78.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 78.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 77.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 78.0% |
Yes is favored at 78.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 78¢ | 78.0% | +1.0 pts | $3.3K | 100.0% |
| No | 22¢ | 22.0% | -1.0 pts | $3.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 22¢ (bid 67¢ / ask 89¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Proposition 38 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to borrow $8.4 billion in debt to research immune system-based technologies for treating conditions including cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer’s. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 143 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheery-Science | No | 143 | $32 |
| Amazing-Pad | Yes | 97 | $76 |
| Those-Skywalk | No | 86 | $19 |
| Improbable-Responsibility | Yes | 81 | $63 |
| Expensive-Struggle | Yes | 51 | $40 |
| Known-Use | No | 40 | $9 |
| Bouncy-Saving | No | 40 | $9 |
| 0x2d48c834… | Yes | 38 | $30 |
| Sneaky-Spouse | Yes | 33 | $26 |
| Insidious-Meteor | Yes | 22 | $17 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 09:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 72.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 07:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 07:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 01:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 33.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 12:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 35.0% | $2 |
| Oct 05, 12:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 46.4% | $6 |
| Oct 05, 12:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 47.0% | $49 |
| Oct 05, 12:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 47.0% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 12:19 AM ET | No | SELL | 47.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 78.0%. Next is No at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-immunology-research-bond-proposition?via=bro
$3.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Yes, priced at 78.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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