As of October 24, 2026, 08:04 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Fiona Ma at 95.7% in California Lieutenant Governor Election Winner — $32.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Fiona Ma, is priced at 95.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.8 pts; past week: -0.2 pts; past month: +1.2 pts.
Since May 15, 2026, Fiona Ma has traded between 58.5% and 96.5%. It opened at 66.5% and last traded at 95.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.7% |
Fiona Ma is favored at 95.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiona Ma | 96¢ | 95.7% | -0.8 pts | $12.7K | 39.7% |
| Josh Fryday | 2¢ | 1.6% | +0.7 pts | $3.4K | 10.7% |
| Oliver Ma | 1¢ | 1.4% | +0.5 pts | $3.9K | 12.3% |
| David Fennell | 1¢ | 0.8% | +0.2 pts | $1.4K | 4.4% |
| Janelle Kellman | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.6 pts | $1.5K | 4.7% |
| Ebie Lynch | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $1.4K | 4.5% |
| Sean Collinson | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.3K | 3.9% |
| Jeyson Lopez | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.3K | 4.2% |
| Rakesh Christian | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.6K | 5.0% |
| David Collenberg | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.5K | 4.7% |
| Michael Tubbs | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | 5.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$32.0K has been traded on this event in total, $122 of it in the last 24 hours, across 37 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California lieutenant gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,024 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pristine-Business | Yes | 2,024 | $1.9K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,031 | $44 |
| Those-Skywalk | Yes | 472 | $451 |
| Secondary-Shock | No | 260 | $11 |
| Muted-Primary | No | 200 | $9 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery | No | 200 | $9 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 200 | $9 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 190 | $8 |
| Essential-Diarist | No | 180 | $8 |
| Rubbery-Policy | Yes | 180 | $172 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.5% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 06:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 06:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.3% | $5 |
| Oct 18, 11:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.6% | $19 |
| Oct 16, 01:53 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.0% | $44 |
| Oct 16, 01:37 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.9% | $59 |
| Oct 16, 01:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.0% | $37 |
| Oct 16, 01:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Fiona Ma at 95.7%. Next is Josh Fryday at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-lieutenant-governor-election-winner?via=bro
$32.0K in total volume, with $122 traded in the last 24 hours across 37 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Fiona Ma, priced at 95.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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