As of October 24, 2026, 09:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 68.0% in California Public Campaign Financing Proposition — $55 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 68.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -18.0 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -13.0 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, No has traded between 52.0% and 75.0%. It opened at 54.0% and last traded at 68.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 54.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.0% |
No is favored at 68.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 68¢ | 68.0% | +18.0 pts | $55 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 32¢ | 32.0% | -18.0 pts | $55 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 40¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 52¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$55 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Proposition 4 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would give California governments the authority to set up public financing systems for state and local political candidates. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 20 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | No | 20 | $14 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 13 | $4 |
| Nutty-User-Subcontractor | Yes | 7 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 04:33 AM ET | No | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 23, 03:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:33 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $3 |
| Oct 17, 02:43 AM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $2 |
| Oct 16, 11:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 05:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 47.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 68.0%. Next is Yes at 32.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-public-campaign-financing-proposition?via=bro
$55 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
No, priced at 68.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:25 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.