As of October 24, 2026, 09:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 71.6% in California Rainy Day Fund Proposition — $860 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 71.6%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.6 pts; past month: +0.6 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, Yes has traded between 50.0% and 81.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 72.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 71.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.1% |
Yes is favored at 71.6%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 72¢ | 71.6% | — | $860 | 100.0% |
| No | 28¢ | 28.4% | — | $860 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 46¢ (bid 48¢ / ask 95¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$860 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Proposition 2 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would allow the state to deposit up to 20% of its general fund tax revenue into its rainy day fund each year, instead of the current 10%. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 55 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Those-Skywalk | Yes | 55 | $39 |
| Nutty-User-Subcontractor | Yes | 20 | $14 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 20 | $6 |
| Antique-Copy | No | 20 | $6 |
| Venerated-Worm | No | 20 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 10 | $3 |
| Avaricious-Realm | No | 6 | $2 |
| Wet-Event | Yes | 3 | $2 |
| 0x2d48c834… | No | 2 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.5% | $14 |
| Oct 21, 08:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 5.2% | $0 |
| Jul 21, 01:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Jul 21, 01:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $3 |
| Jul 15, 10:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $3 |
| Jul 04, 06:07 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 64.0% | $13 |
| Jul 03, 02:08 AM ET | No | SELL | 32.2% | $10 |
| Jul 02, 09:54 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $24 |
| Jul 02, 09:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 34.3% | $10 |
| Jul 02, 09:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 71.6%. Next is No at 28.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-rainy-day-fund-proposition?via=bro
$860 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Yes, priced at 71.6% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.