As of October 24, 2026, 09:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 73.0% in California Retroactive Tax Prohibition Proposition — $174 traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 73.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts; past week: +7.0 pts; past month: +20.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, Yes has traded between 47.0% and 71.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 71.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.5% |
Yes is favored at 73.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 73¢ | 73.0% | +6.0 pts | $174 | 100.0% |
| No | 27¢ | 27.0% | -6.0 pts | $174 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 40¢ (bid 53¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$174 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Proposition 42 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Resolution source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 78 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | Yes | 78 | $57 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 77 | $21 |
| 0x16e79aa0… | No | 20 | $5 |
| Winged-Holder | Yes | 19 | $14 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 04:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 28.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 07:33 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $11 |
| Oct 20, 09:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 09:44 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $13 |
| Oct 17, 10:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 56.0% | $11 |
| Oct 17, 10:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 16, 10:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 16, 10:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.0% | $12 |
| Oct 16, 10:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 73.0%. Next is No at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-retroactive-tax-prohibition-proposition?via=bro
$174 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Yes, priced at 73.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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