As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 85.5% in California voter ID referendum passes? — $11.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 85.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: -16.5 pts.
Since March 16, 2026, No has traded between 33.0% and 85.5%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 85.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 82.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 85.5% |
No is favored at 85.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 85.5% | -1.5 pts | $11.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 14.5% | +1.5 pts | $11.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.7K has been traded on this event in total, $33 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 758 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting-Fiber | No | 758 | $648 |
| Defiant-Million | No | 621 | $531 |
| Daring-President | Yes | 439 | $64 |
| Earnest-Dryer | No | 377 | $322 |
| Shallow-Astrology | No | 279 | $239 |
| Lean-Hurricane | Yes | 275 | $40 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 271 | $39 |
| Dirty-Burn | Yes | 216 | $31 |
| Ordinary-Confectionery | Yes | 200 | $29 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 197 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 06:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 02:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $16 |
| Oct 22, 02:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 02:41 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 85.5%. Next is Yes at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-voter-id-referendum-passes?via=bro
$11.7K in total volume, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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