Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

California voter ID referendum passes?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 85.5% in California voter ID referendum passes? — $11.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $33.
Leading outcome
No
86%
A 85.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.5 pts7D −9.5 pts30D −16.5 pts
No85.5%
Yes14.5%
Bid
13¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since March 16, 2026: 33.0% – 85.5% · Opened at 70.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
California voter ID referendum passes?
Category
Politics, California, gavin newsom, voter ID, referendums, Global Elections, International Election Props
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$11.7K
Volume (24h)
$33
Liquidity
$19.4K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 85.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 85.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -9.5 pts; past month: -16.5 pts.

Since March 16, 2026, No has traded between 33.0% and 85.5%. It opened at 70.5% and last traded at 85.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202666.5%
Oct 15, 202674.5%
Oct 16, 202672.5%
Oct 18, 202682.0%
Oct 19, 202683.0%
Oct 20, 202683.5%
Oct 24, 202685.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 85.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No86¢85.5%-1.5 pts$11.7K100.0%
Yes14¢14.5%+1.5 pts$11.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$11.7K has been traded on this event in total, $33 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If by the last legally operative deadline for placing measures on the November 3, 2026 statewide ballot, including any deadline set or modified by statute governing the initiative qualification process, no qualifying voter identification initiative has been approved for submission to voters, and there is no enacted statute or pending court order that could still place such a measure on that ballot, the market will resolve “No”. If the election is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. The resolution source will be based on the official certified results of the vote as published by the California Secretary of State. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 758 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Fitting-FiberNo758$648
Defiant-MillionNo621$531
Daring-PresidentYes439$64
Earnest-DryerNo377$322
Shallow-AstrologyNo279$239
Lean-HurricaneYes275$40
Known-UseYes271$39
Dirty-BurnYes216$31
Ordinary-ConfectioneryYes200$29
Belated-GlueYes197$29

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $502 at 80.9%BUY No — $32 at 72.0%BUY No — $21 at 75.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 11:35 AM ETYesBUY15.0%$5
Oct 23, 03:20 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$7
Oct 22, 06:18 PM ETNoBUY84.0%$3
Oct 22, 02:50 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$16
Oct 22, 02:41 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Oct 22, 02:41 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Oct 22, 12:20 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Oct 22, 12:10 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Oct 22, 09:58 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$1
Oct 22, 07:41 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of California voter ID referendum passes??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 85.5%. Next is Yes at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-voter-id-referendum-passes?via=bro

How much money has been traded on California voter ID referendum passes??

$11.7K in total volume, with $33 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does California voter ID referendum passes? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of California voter ID referendum passes?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 85.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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