Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 85.0% in California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? — $1.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
85%
A 85.0% price implies roughly a 85-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +1.5 pts30D −2.5 pts
No85.0%
Yes15.0%
Bid
14¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since July 01, 2026: 52.5% – 86.5% · Opened at 54.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
Category
Politics, Elections, California, deprec USA Election, California Midterm, US Election
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.4K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$26.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 85.0%
Resolution source
https://www.sos.ca.gov/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 85.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.

Since July 01, 2026, No has traded between 52.5% and 86.5%. It opened at 54.5% and last traded at 85.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202686.5%
Oct 16, 202686.5%
Oct 18, 202686.0%
Oct 19, 202686.0%
Oct 20, 202685.5%
Oct 22, 202685.0%
Oct 23, 202685.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 85.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No85¢85.0%—$1.4K100.0%
Yes15¢15.0%—$1.4K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 263 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Brown-TragedyNo263$223
Dense-WhipYes90$13
Snappy-RoosterYes60$9
Slow-ExhibitNo45$38
Modern-MaliceYes43$6
Belated-GlueYes38$6
Tart-Pickaxe-FormamideYes36$5
Oddball-PoisonYes18$3
Aged-WaistYes14$2
Indolent-CeilingNo14$12

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $113 at 80.6%BUY No — $112 at 73.8%BUY No — $34 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 10:15 AM ETYesBUY15.0%$1
Oct 22, 07:28 AM ETYesSELL14.0%$10
Oct 17, 08:16 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$5
Oct 07, 10:29 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$2
Oct 07, 10:29 AM ETYesBUY14.0%$2
Oct 02, 11:14 AM ETYesSELL13.0%$3
Sep 30, 03:45 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$3
Sep 30, 03:45 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$3
Sep 28, 02:12 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Sep 28, 02:12 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 85.0%. Next is Yes at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-wealth-tax-defeats-opposing-propositions-20260701211429348?via=bro

How much money has been traded on California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions??

$1.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

What is the most likely outcome of California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 85.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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