As of October 24, 2026, 09:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 85.0% in California wealth tax defeats opposing propositions? — $1.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 85.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, No has traded between 52.5% and 86.5%. It opened at 54.5% and last traded at 85.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 85.0% |
No is favored at 85.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 85¢ | 85.0% | — | $1.4K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 15¢ | 15.0% | — | $1.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 14¢ / ask 16¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Propositions 40, 41, and 42 are California ballot measures currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. Proposition 40 would apply a one-time 5% wealth tax on the assets of roughly 200 California billionaires, to be paid over five years. Proposition 41 would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prevent retroactive taxes and new taxes on personal property. Under the California Constitution, Article II, Section 10, subdivision (b), “if provisions of two or more measures approved at the same election conflict, the provisions of the measure receiving the highest number of affirmative votes shall prevail.” Therefore, if either Proposition 41 or 42 receive a higher number of affirmative votes than Proposition 40, its proposed wealth tax would not take effect. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Proposition 40 is approved by a majority of voters and receives more valid affirmative votes than both Proposition 41 and Proposition 42 individually at the specified election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If any of the specified ballot measures are renumbered, the renumbered ballot measure will count as its successor for the purposes of this market. If Proposition 40 is not approved by a majority of voters at the specified election, this market will resolve to "No". … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.sos.ca.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 263 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brown-Tragedy | No | 263 | $223 |
| Dense-Whip | Yes | 90 | $13 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 60 | $9 |
| Slow-Exhibit | No | 45 | $38 |
| Modern-Malice | Yes | 43 | $6 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 38 | $6 |
| Tart-Pickaxe-Formamide | Yes | 36 | $5 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 18 | $3 |
| Aged-Waist | Yes | 14 | $2 |
| Indolent-Ceiling | No | 14 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 07:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $10 |
| Oct 17, 08:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $5 |
| Oct 07, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $2 |
| Oct 07, 10:29 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $2 |
| Oct 02, 11:14 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $3 |
| Sep 30, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Sep 30, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $3 |
| Sep 28, 02:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Sep 28, 02:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 85.0%. Next is Yes at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/california-wealth-tax-defeats-opposing-propositions-20260701211429348?via=bro
$1.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
No, priced at 85.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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