Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 87.5% in Canada admitted to the EU before 2029? — $5.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $62.
Leading outcome
No
88%
A 87.5% price implies roughly a 88-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D +0.5 pts30D −0.5 pts
No87.5%
Yes12.5%
Bid
12¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 73.5% – 93.5% · Opened at 93.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?
Category
World, Canada, Europe, Politics, Geopolitics, Mark Carney, European Union , US Canada Trade War
Scheduled end
December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.1K
Volume (24h)
$62
Liquidity
$20.5K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 87.5%
Resolution source
https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries_en

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 87.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -0.5 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, No has traded between 73.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 93.5% and last traded at 88.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202675.5%
Oct 17, 202676.5%
Oct 18, 202688.5%
Oct 19, 202686.0%
Oct 20, 202688.0%
Oct 22, 202688.5%
Oct 23, 202688.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 87.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No88¢87.5%-1.0 pts$5.1K100.0%
Yes12¢12.5%+1.0 pts$5.1K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.1K has been traded on this event in total, $62 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada has officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Canada will be considered to have officially been admitted to join the European Union as a full member state on the date that all required parties and EU member-states have signed and ratified an accession treaty or other legally binding instrument admitting Canada as a member state of the European Union. Membership subject to opt-outs, derogations, or transition periods on specific EU policies will qualify, provided Canada is admitted as a member state of the European Union under a signed and ratified accession treaty. Associate membership, the proposed "Alliance for the Future", and any other associate, partner, or affiliate status short of full membership will not qualify. Candidate status, the opening or conclusion of accession negotiations, and any other stage of the accession process short of a signed and ratified accession treaty will not qualify. Membership in the European Economic Area, a customs union with the European Union, and any association, framework, trade, security, or cooperation agreement with the European Union will also not qualify. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries_en

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 892 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cultivated-DieselYes892$111
Dishonest-ZigguratNo358$313
This-NameNo290$254
Unknown-IntegerNo195$171
Rotten-TermNo150$131
Big-RepairNo126$110
Belated-GlueYes119$15
Unselfish-RepublicNo98$86
Superior-MeteorologyYes63$8
Faint-SkateYes56$7

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $121 at 92.8%BUY No — $115 at 77.0%BUY No — $86 at 87.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:06 AM ETNoSELL87.0%$1
Oct 24, 02:06 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:06 AM ETYesBUY12.0%$2
Oct 24, 02:06 AM ETYesBUY12.0%$3
Oct 23, 05:30 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:30 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$35
Oct 20, 06:22 PM ETYesBUY12.0%$5
Oct 20, 09:38 AM ETYesBUY12.0%$4
Oct 20, 09:23 AM ETNoBUY92.8%$121
Oct 20, 09:22 AM ETNoBUY90.4%$23

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Canada admitted to the EU before 2029??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 87.5%. Next is Yes at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-admitted-to-the-eu-before-2029?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Canada admitted to the EU before 2029??

$5.1K in total volume, with $62 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Canada admitted to the EU before 2029? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/eu-countries_en.

What is the most likely outcome of Canada admitted to the EU before 2029?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 87.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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