As of October 24, 2026, 09:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 8.5% in Canada applies for full EU membership by...? — $1.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 8.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -11.0 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 7.5% and 29.0%. It opened at 7.5% and last traded at 8.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 9.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 8.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 8.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $109 | 6.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $1.7K | 93.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 9¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Government of Canada formally submits an application for Canada to become an EU member state to the European Union by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal application means a written request for Canada to become a member state of the European Union The application must be submitted by the Government of Canada or by a representative acting with its authority. An application will qualify even if it seeks or anticipates opt-outs, exemptions, or transition periods on specific European Union policies. A request, proposal, negotiation, or agreement concerning associate membership, an "Alliance for the Future" or other partnership, an association agreement, a framework agreement, membership in the European Economic Area, a customs union, or any other status short of membership will not qualify. Statements of intent, expressions of interest, exploratory talks, parliamentary motions, petitions, and proposals or invitations from the European Union or any of its member states will not qualify. Once a qualifying application has been submitted, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether the European Union accepts, rejects, deems inadmissible, or acts on the application, and whether the application is later withdrawn. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 48 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Helpful-Cheese | No | 48 | $44 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 38 | $3 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 11 | $1 |
| Striking-Meme-Future | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 06:12 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 03:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.0% | $6 |
| Oct 15, 03:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.7% | $6 |
| Oct 10, 05:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 03:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.1% | $103 |
| Sep 29, 02:08 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Sep 29, 03:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Sep 27, 08:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $1 |
| Sep 27, 01:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 8.5%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-applies-for-full-eu-membership-byptptpt?via=bro
$1.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 8.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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