As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 20.5% in Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...? — $9.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 20.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -9.0 pts; past month: -19.5 pts.
Since September 17, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 16.5% and 43.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 20.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 34.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.5% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 20.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 20¢ | 20.5% | — | $2.4K | 24.8% |
| June 30, 2027 | 12¢ | 12.5% | -4.0 pts | $5.0K | 50.6% |
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 3.8% | -1.5 pts | $2.4K | 24.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $761 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that establishes an associate membership or equivalent status for Canada in relation to the European Union by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". An instrument establishes an associate membership or equivalent status if it is described in its own text as establishing associate membership, associate member status, or an equivalent formulation. Proposals, invitations, statements of intent, negotiations, or action by only one side do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both Canada and the European Union (either as an institution or as a composite of its member states). Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 575 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 575 | $118 |
| Barren-Sleuth | No | 531 | $422 |
| mskl | No | 200 | $159 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 135 | $28 |
| Silent-Rowboat | No | 99 | $79 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 79 | $16 |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 70 | $14 |
| Speedy-Bartender | No | 50 | $40 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 20 | $4 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 19 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 04:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 84.0% | $371 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $52 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $34 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 04:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $21 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 20.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-becomes-european-union-association-member-byptptpt?via=bro
$9.8K in total volume, with $761 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 20.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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