Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 20.5% in Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...? — $9.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $761.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027
20%
A 20.5% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −9.0 pts30D −19.5 pts
December 31, 202720.5%
June 30, 202712.5%
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 17, 2026: 16.5% – 43.0% · Opened at 33.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?
Category
Canada, Politics, European Union , US Canada Trade War
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.8K
Volume (24h)
$761
Liquidity
$40.8K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31, 2027 — 20.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 20.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -9.0 pts; past month: -19.5 pts.

Since September 17, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 16.5% and 43.0%. It opened at 33.0% and last traded at 20.5%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202634.0%
Oct 15, 202630.0%
Oct 16, 202629.5%
Oct 18, 202629.0%
Oct 19, 202630.0%
Oct 20, 202630.5%
Oct 24, 202620.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2027 is favored at 20.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202720¢20.5%—$2.4K24.8%
June 30, 202712¢12.5%-4.0 pts$5.0K50.6%
December 31, 20264¢3.8%-1.5 pts$2.4K24.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $761 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada and the European Union sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic instrument that establishes an associate membership or equivalent status for Canada in relation to the European Union by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". An instrument establishes an associate membership or equivalent status if it is described in its own text as establishing associate membership, associate member status, or an equivalent formulation. Proposals, invitations, statements of intent, negotiations, or action by only one side do not qualify. Existing or sector-specific trade, defence, research, or mobility arrangements alone do not qualify. Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both Canada and the European Union (either as an institution or as a composite of its member states). Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents that substantively and directly indicate acceptance of the same underlying instrument, regardless of minor formatting, wording, or translation differences between the signed versions. Both physical signatures and officially-issued electronic signatures will qualify as signatures. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 575 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes575$118
Barren-SleuthNo531$422
msklNo200$159
Skeletal-LiverYes135$28
Silent-RowboatNo99$79
Known-UseYes79$16
Sparse-CookieYes70$14
Speedy-BartenderNo50$40
Straight-WrinkleYes20$4
Oddball-PoisonYes19$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $390 at 80.5%BUY No — $371 at 84.0%BUY No — $322 at 93.1%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:17 AM ETNoBUY88.0%$18
Oct 24, 04:17 AM ETYesSELL12.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETYesSELL12.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETYesSELL14.0%$1
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$22
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY84.0%$371
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$52
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY85.0%$34
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$17
Oct 24, 04:07 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$21

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 20.5%. Next is June 30, 2027 at 12.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-becomes-european-union-association-member-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...??

$9.8K in total volume, with $761 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Canada becomes EU Associate Member by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2027, priced at 20.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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