Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31? — $4.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
94%
A 94.5% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
30D −0.5 pts
No94.5%
Yes5.5%
Bid
4¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since August 25, 2026: 66.0% – 95.5% · Opened at 81.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
Category
Canada, Politics, Geopolitics, electricity, United States, US Canada Trade War
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$4.0K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$12.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 94.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.5 pts.

Since August 25, 2026, No has traded between 66.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 81.5% and last traded at 94.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202694.5%
Oct 16, 202694.5%
Oct 18, 202694.5%
Oct 19, 202694.5%
Oct 20, 202694.5%
Oct 23, 202694.5%
Oct 24, 202694.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 94.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No94¢94.5%—$4.0K100.0%
Yes6¢5.5%—$4.0K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,989 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Wonderful-ScotchYes1,989$109
Monumental-UnionNo1,055$997
Sizzling-HovercraftNo500$472
Tangible-Exasperation-GritNo228$215
Tiny-ClubNo218$206
Prickly-SignupNo178$169
Oval-CasementNo171$162
Bouncy-SavingYes93$5
Caring-OrganYes83$5
0xcbffcd0e…Yes71$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $63 at 93.0%BUY No — $50 at 95.0%BUY No — $28 at 94.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 10, 06:37 AM ETNoBUY93.0%$19
Oct 10, 06:36 AM ETNoBUY92.0%$18
Oct 09, 04:34 PM ETNoSELL93.0%$63
Oct 08, 05:10 AM ETYesSELL4.8%$5
Oct 08, 05:10 AM ETNoBUY96.0%$19
Oct 05, 06:09 AM ETNoBUY95.0%$50
Oct 02, 03:22 PM ETNoBUY94.0%$5
Sep 29, 06:11 AM ETNoBUY94.0%$28
Sep 26, 02:32 AM ETNoSELL94.0%$1
Sep 25, 09:10 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-cuts-off-or-throttles-electricity-to-the-us-by-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31??

$4.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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