As of October 24, 2026, 08:53 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 94.5% in Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31? — $4.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 94.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -0.5 pts.
Since August 25, 2026, No has traded between 66.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 81.5% and last traded at 94.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 94.5% |
No is favored at 94.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 94¢ | 94.5% | — | $4.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $4.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada, through an authorized representative of either the federal government or a provincial government, including through a state-owned enterprise, announces that it is using its authority to cut off or throttle the exportation of electricity, in whole or in part, to the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Reductions or curtailments attributable to water or supply conditions, grid reliability, maintenance, commercial or contractual factors, or other ordinary-course operational decisions will not qualify. An announcement of a qualifying action will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether electricity exports are actually throttled or cut off, and regardless of whether the action is subsequently suspended or reversed. A qualifying action must restrict the volume or flow of electricity exports. The imposition of surcharges, taxes, tariffs, or other price-based measures alone will not be sufficient to qualify. Statements that Canada or a province may take, is considering taking, or will take such action only if a condition is met or unmet will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian federal or provincial governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,989 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wonderful-Scotch | Yes | 1,989 | $109 |
| Monumental-Union | No | 1,055 | $997 |
| Sizzling-Hovercraft | No | 500 | $472 |
| Tangible-Exasperation-Grit | No | 228 | $215 |
| Tiny-Club | No | 218 | $206 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 178 | $169 |
| Oval-Casement | No | 171 | $162 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 93 | $5 |
| Caring-Organ | Yes | 83 | $5 |
| 0xcbffcd0e… | Yes | 71 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 06:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 93.0% | $19 |
| Oct 10, 06:36 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 09, 04:34 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $63 |
| Oct 08, 05:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.8% | $5 |
| Oct 08, 05:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $19 |
| Oct 05, 06:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $50 |
| Oct 02, 03:22 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $5 |
| Sep 29, 06:11 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.0% | $28 |
| Sep 26, 02:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $1 |
| Sep 25, 09:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 94.5%. Next is Yes at 5.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-cuts-off-or-throttles-electricity-to-the-us-by-december-31?via=bro
$4.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 94.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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