As of October 24, 2026, 09:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 84.2% in Canada expels the US Ambassador by December 31? — $119 traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 84.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.2 pts; past month: +12.4 pts.
Since August 13, 2026, No has traded between 66.8% and 96.5%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 84.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 66.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 91.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 84.2% |
No is favored at 84.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 84¢ | 84.2% | — | $119 | 100.0% |
| Yes | 16¢ | 15.8% | — | $119 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 28¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$119 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Canada expels the United States Ambassador to Canada between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by Canada requiring the United States Ambassador to leave Canada, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to Canada will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Canadian government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 83 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Concrete-Horn | No | 83 | $70 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 63 | $10 |
| Back-Browsing-Peacock | Yes | 23 | $4 |
| Lively-Baggie | No | 21 | $18 |
| Mortified-Wetland | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Gullible-Scow | No | 10 | $9 |
| Winged-Nation | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| Incomplete-Hay | No | 1 | $1 |
| Naughty-Marketplace | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 04:57 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Sep 25, 09:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $1 |
| Aug 28, 07:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $10 |
| Aug 13, 03:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.6% | $70 |
| Aug 13, 12:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 93.1% | $20 |
| Aug 13, 10:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 84.2%. Next is Yes at 15.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canada-expels-the-us-ambassador-by-december-31-20260812173815700?via=bro
$119 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 84.2% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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