As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Down at 53.5% in Canada's population Up or Down this year? — $2.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Down, is priced at 53.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +34.0 pts.
Since January 27, 2026, Down has traded between 16.5% and 89.5%. It opened at 38.5% and last traded at 53.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.5% |
Down is favored at 53.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 54¢ | 53.5% | — | $2.2K | 100.0% |
| Up | 46¢ | 46.5% | — | $2.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 53¢ (bid 20¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution source: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 310 shares of Up.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forthright-Armpit | Up | 310 | $144 |
| Precious-Physical | Down | 191 | $102 |
| Radiant-Anarchy | Down | 167 | $89 |
| Feminine-Hint | Down | 70 | $37 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow | Up | 60 | $28 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Up | 57 | $27 |
| Complicated-Euphonium | Down | 47 | $25 |
| Virtual-Dough | Up | 34 | $16 |
| Required-Rocker | Down | 33 | $18 |
| Warm-Love | Up | 31 | $15 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 04:02 AM ET | Up | SELL | 17.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 04:59 PM ET | Down | SELL | 27.0% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 02:40 PM ET | Down | SELL | 27.0% | $0 |
| Sep 29, 03:15 AM ET | Up | SELL | 15.0% | $0 |
| Sep 29, 02:05 AM ET | Down | SELL | 81.0% | $16 |
| Sep 28, 06:33 PM ET | Down | SELL | 81.0% | $5 |
| Sep 25, 04:00 AM ET | Down | BUY | 94.0% | $1 |
| Aug 26, 05:18 PM ET | Up | BUY | 17.0% | $1 |
| Aug 23, 09:49 PM ET | Down | SELL | 84.0% | $1 |
| Aug 20, 02:37 PM ET | Up | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Down at 53.5%. Next is Up at 46.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/canadas-population-up-or-down-this-year?via=bro
$2.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start.
Down, priced at 53.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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