As of October 24, 2026, 07:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 80.5% in Carles Puigdemont back in Spain by...? — $58.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 80.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -8.0 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, December 31 has traded between 7.5% and 89.5%. It opened at 18.0% and last traded at 80.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 85.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 80.5% |
December 31 is favored at 80.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 80¢ | 80.5% | — | $33.0K | 56.2% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 1.8% | -1.4 pts | $21.1K | 36.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 80¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$58.7K has been traded on this event in total, $353 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Carles Puigdemont physically enters the terrestrial territory of Spain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Territory will be considered Spanish if it is administered by Spain at the time of Carles Puigdemont's presence, regardless of whether the territory is disputed. Unless Spain begins to administer the territory, Gibraltar will not count. Whether or not Puigdemont enters Spanish airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, including photographs or video from reputable media outlets.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,756 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verifiable-Obstacle | No | 1,756 | $342 |
| Circular-Greens | Yes | 1,454 | $1.2K |
| Primary-Profile | Yes | 1,071 | $862 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 940 | $183 |
| Awkward-Sensitivity | Yes | 683 | $550 |
| Charming-Grape | No | 450 | $88 |
| 0x14a1783e… | Yes | 395 | $318 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 311 | $250 |
| Querulous-Variability | No | 304 | $59 |
| Writhing-Round | No | 300 | $58 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 11:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 11:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 11:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.4% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 02:29 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $39 |
| Oct 23, 10:16 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.1% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 01:26 PM ET | No | SELL | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 01:00 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.1% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 20.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 02:11 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 02:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 80.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 80.5%. Next is October 31 at 1.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/carles-puigdemont-back-in-spain-in-2026-20260625011546952?via=bro
$58.7K in total volume, with $353 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 80.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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